Thursday, February 23, 2017

The Hosmer dance

The Royals are reportedly open to signing Eric Hosmer to a long term contract. This is good (I guess) as Hosmer has become a fan favorite. I think it's safe to say if the money is reasonable then Moore should make that deal. If not, however, DM should be prepared to let him walk.

People who love them some RBIs were thrilled to the moon when Hosmer topped 100 last year. It was his breakout year, after all, with a career high in home runs too.

"The sky is the limit," the people cried.

Not so much really. Those numbers looked good, but others, mainly on-base percentage (.328) and slugging percentage (.433), were less impressive. When you start digging deeper into his numbers you really need to hold on tight to those home runs and RBIs, otherwise, you find a guy who is nowhere near worth a hundred million dollars.

I fired up the always trusty Play Index to find similar seasons this century. I found 39 players who had a 25+ home run, 100+ RBI season at age 26 since 2000. I sorted the players by OPS+, and while I expected Hosmer to be near the bottom, I didn't expect him to be at the very bottom. Yet there he was looking up at the other 38 players (including four Royals).

Results
Rk Player OPS+ HR RBI Year Age
1Albert Pujols17849137200626
2Matt Kemp17239126201126
3Joey Votto17137113201026
4Ryan Howard16758149200626
5Todd Helton16342147200026
6Alex Rodriguez15857142200226
7Jason Bay15032101200526
8Lance Berkman15042128200226
9Anthony Rizzo14632109201626
10Aubrey Huff14534107200326
11Miguel Cabrera14434103200926
12Adrian Gonzalez14036119200826
13Kendrys Morales13934108200926
14Aramis Ramirez13936103200426
15Vladimir Guerrero13934108200126
16Billy Butler13829107201226
17Matt Holliday13734114200626
18Darin Erstad13725100200026
19Garrett Atkins13629120200626
20Jermaine Dye13533118200026
21Justin Upton13329102201426
22Chase Utley13228105200526
23Carlos Beltran13226100200326
24Troy Tulowitzki13130105201126
25Ryan Braun13125103201026
Rk Player OPS+ HR RBI Year Age
26Mike Sweeney13129144200026
27Alfonso Soriano12939102200226
28Richie Sexson12845125200126
29Scott Rolen12725107200126
30Magglio Ordonez12732126200026
31Mark Teixeira12633110200626
32Paul Konerko12427104200226
33Justin Morneau12231111200726
34Jay Bruce12030109201326
35Andruw Jones11736116200326
36Pedro Alvarez11536100201326
37Miguel Tejada11130115200026
38Tony Batista10241114200026
39Eric Hosmer10125104201626
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/23/2017.

I've never believed Hosmer would sign a long term deal. I still don't really, even with the two sides making eye contact at each other. I would like to see him stick around but not if the price is going to be a burden down the road. A 1 win first baseman with a 101 OPS+ seems like something you would try to upgrade from, not throw all the money at. But here we are.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Multi-hit Whit

Whit Merrifield has been racking up multi-hit games at an outstanding pace since his promotion. It turns out he's amassed more than any Royal ever through 24 games.

Most multi-hit games by a Royal in the first 24 games of a career:

Rk Player Year #Matching
1 Whit Merrifield 2016 11
2 Irving Falu 2012 10
3 Mike Aviles 2008 10
4 Kevin Seitzer 1986 9
5 Hector Ortiz 2000 9
6 Eric Hosmer 2011 9
7 Terry Shumpert 1990 8
8 Brian McRae 1990 8
9 Mike Macfarlane 1988 8
10 Mike Kingery 1986 8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/16/2016.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Most WAR, 67th Overall Selections

Last night the Royals took right-handed pitcher A.J. Puckett of Pepperdine with the 67th pick in the MLB draft. That's basically all I know about the guy. Keith Law I am not. But I did start wondering how previous 67th overall June picks performed in their careers so I fired up the baseball-reference machine to take a look.

YearTmNamePosWAR ▾
1970CubsRick Reuschel (minors)RHP70.0
1971YankeesRon Guidry (minors)LHP48.1
1983Angels via Yankees*Wally Joyner (minors)1B35.7
1978CardinalsMike Moore (minors)RHP28.5
2007Nationals via Cubs*Jordan Zimmermann (minors)RHP22.6
2004AthleticsKurt Suzuki (minors)C14.4
1977TwinsRoger Erickson (minors)RHP8.1
2000AstrosChad Qualls (minors)RHP6.3
1985TwinsPaul Abbott (minors)RHP4.7
1976DodgersMax Venable (minors)OF1.0
1974GiantsAlan Wirth (minors)RHP0.8
1968BravesMike McQueen (minors)LHP0.3
1987RoyalsStu Cole (minors)SS0.1
1973TigersBob Adams (minors)3B-0.0
1993AthleticsJeff D'Amico (minors)SS-0.3
2001MarinersMike Wilson (minors)OF-0.4
1969TigersBill Gilbreth (minors)LHP-0.9
1966CardinalsBob Spence (minors)1B-0.9
1998YankeesRandy Keisler (minors)LHP-1.5
2015DodgersMitch Hansen (minors)OF
2014Red SoxSam Travis (minors)1B
2013RedsKevin Franklin (minors)3B
2012CubsDuane Underwood (minors)RHP
2011IndiansDillon Howard (minors)RHP
2010MarinersMarcus Littlewood (minors)SS
2009CardinalsRobert Stock (minors)C
2008TigersCody Satterwhite (minors)RHP
2006AstrosSergio Perez (minors)RHP
2005RangersJohn Whittleman (minors)3B
2003BravesPaul Bacot (minors)RHP
2002AthleticsSteve Stanley (minors)OF
1999RockiesRyan Kibler (minors)RHP
1997Indians via White Sox*Edgar Cruz (minors)C
1996TwinsDan Cey (minors)SS
1995RockiesChris Macca (minors)RHP
1994BrewersLarry Barnes (minors)RHP
1992Angels*Marquis Riley (minors)OF
1991Red SoxChad Schoenvogel (minors)RHP
1990White Sox*Eric Maloney (minors)RHP
1989White SoxTodd Martin (minors)SS
1988White SoxMike Mitchener (minors)RHP
1986AthleticsDarrin Duffy (minors)SS
1984ExposKevin Garner (minors)RHP
1982PhilliesKevin Ross (minors)OF
1981RedsDelwyn Young (minors)SS
1980CardinalsDan Stryffler (minors)OF
1979AngelsMickey Saatzer (minors)RHP
1975YankeesNate Chapman (minors)OF
1972GiantsMike Kirkland (minors)3B
1967AthleticsVic Sciamarelli (minors)OF
1965AngelsJohn Olerud (minors)C
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/10/2016.

Of the fifty-one picks between 1965 and 2015 only nineteen made it to the major leagues. Of those nineteen only six posted double digit WAR in their careers. It's a tough road to stardom.