Well Then.....

They lost closer Joakim Soria and catcher Salvador Perez in spring training - Soria for the year and Perez for the first half of the season.

The lost centerfielder Lorenzo Cain in the season's second series.

Greg Holland followed a bout of ineffectiveness with a trip to the DL.

Felipe Paulino started the season on the DL and has made just 2 starts.

Danny Duffy missed one start and was removed in the first inning of another. He is now out until next season.

Eric Hosmer has a 57 OPS+ and has hit just 3 home runs since the team left Anaheim.

They lost 12 games in a row.

And yet, despite all the above occurring, they are only 4.5 games out of first place.

Amazing.

Is This Really Chris Getz?

Remember during spring training when we were told, despite no results to prove the claim, that the new batting stance being employed by Chris Getz would allow him to hit for more power? Remember how we mocked, and then mocked some more? Our skepticism was warranted due to the underwhelming spring .200/.241/.220 line that included just one extra base hit.

Well maybe there is something to the new batting stance above. Getz doubled in his first at bat of the season and hasn't looked back. After last night's double he now has six extra base hits on the season, which is just three less than all of last year. Look at the difference in slug between his starts the last two years:

Year	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	51	41	6	13	1	0	0	5	.317	.375	.341	.716
2012	50	46	6	15	4	2	0	4	.326	.354	.500	.854

Sure the sample size is still too small to gather any meaningful data but Getz is passing the eyeball test. He really is hitting the ball harder, right now only Mike Moustakas (.553) and Billy Butler (.526) have higher slugging percentages. His numbers will almost certainly come down, just like they did last year (.255/.313/.287), but if he can hit .280/.330/.400 with average to slightly above average defense I have to believe we'd be looking at a valuable contributor.

When Johnny Giavotella was demoted I was ready to grab my pitchfork and storm One Royal Way with the rest of the angry mob, but now, I'm okay with Getz being the starting second baseman. I like productive baseball players, and at this moment, Chris Getz is a productive baseball player.

Francoeur Continues To Struggle, Yost Continues To Look The Other Way

Ned Yost's handling of Jeff Francoeur right now is one transgression I can't forgive. Yost appears to be seemingly unaware that Francoeur is lost at the plate, and has been for a couple weeks. But today, for the 16th time this year, he'll be batting fifth, creating a rally killing hole in the middle of the lineup. Since April 14th Francoeur has hit just .152/.188/.217 in 48 plate appearances. For the season he's at .225/.267/.296 with zero home runs and only 2 runs batted in. Now we all know RBI is a flawed stat, but flawed or not, that number is awfully low for a #5 hitter 18 games into the season. 

Of the eleven Royals with 20+ plate appearances Francoeur is 11th in OPS+, 10th in RBI's, 10th in batting average, 11th in on base percentage and 11th in slugging percentage. And oh yeah, he's tied with Butler for the most times grounding into a double play. Simply put, he's currently the worst hitter on the team, and he's still batting in the middle of the order.

Given Yost's proclivity to juggle the lineup it's amazing that he's failed to significantly drop Francoeur for even a few games. He did hit 6th once during the Toronto series and responded with 2 hits. That was enough to apparently convince Yost that his slump was over because he was immediately moved back to 5th where he's gone 2 for 14 since. His slow start is a bad omen for the rest of the season because historically April is his best month. I mean, if he's this unproductive now, how will he fare in May and June, his two worst months.

I've been hesitant to board the Fire Ned Yost bandwagon despite his counter-productive base running strategy and despite his insistence on playing for 1 run in the early parts of games. Not to mention he still is clueless on how to best employ his relief pitchers. But this Francoeur thing, man, it's pushing me into rage territory. What really irritates me is that Yost is insistent on Francoeur receiving more at bats than Mike Moustakas. Moose, as you know, is having a terrific season (9 extra base hits, 132 OPS+) and the highest he's hit in the order is 6th. And remember, he was actually benched a game earlier in the season. I get the whole left, right, left lineup thing. I also don't care. I'd like Francoeur to get a day or two off and then bat 8th until he comes out of his slump.  

Now that I've ranted this probably means Francoeur will get 4 hits and a home run today, and gosh, won't that just show me?

Teaching Moment Backfires

With right-handed hitting Brett Lawrie at the plate and a struggling Danny Duffy on the mound Ned Yost apparently felt it was time for another teaching moment. And oh yeah, the bases were loaded. Louis Coleman was ready in the bullpen but was not called upon despite the fact right-handers have hit just .182/.269/.357 against him in his career. Predictably the non-move backfired and Lawrie singled turning a 2-0 game into a 4-0 game. I get the teaching moment stuff, I really do. But there are times where it's not called for and this was one of those times. Duffy, over 100 pitches, was definitely not sharp. I mean, he almost threw a wild pitch intentionally walking Edwin Encarnacion. It appeared Duffy was openly criticizing the free pass, which if that's the case, you have to think that's a bad sign for Yost.

Also they've lost nine games in a row. Cancel class and win the game!

Production By Position - 2012 vs 2011

If I told you on the morning of April 6th that the rotation would allow three runs or less in nine of the first twelve games what would you have guessed their record would be? 7-5? 8-4? Based on what we thought we knew I think even the most jaded would have guessed at least a .500 record. But here they sit at 3-9, the second worst mark in baseball (thank you San Diego). The starting pitching, outside of the Cleveland series, has been a pleasant surprise but the offense and bullpen have laid waste to several good performances.

Here is how the team has fared since 2000 in games where a starting pitcher has allowed three runs or less:

2012: 3-6
2011: 54-38
2010: 55-26
2009: 54-34
2008: 66-32
2007: 58-34
2006: 38-38
2005: 41-36
2004: 46-33
2003: 63-29
2002: 47-43
2001: 50-27
2000: 47-20

A 3-6 record isn't really cause for concern but because it's early it'll get more attention than it should, simply because it's all we have to work with. I don't think they'll play under .500 all year in these situations. Last year they had a stretch where they went 3-12 (5/8-5/29) and a couple where they went 4-7 (6/15-7/10 and 8/5-8/24) so, yeah, I think this will more than even out.

So far everything we thought we knew has been wrong. We assumed the offense and bullpen would be fine and that second base and catcher would be offensive sinkholes, wrong (so far) on all four accounts. Let's look at how each position has fared compared to last season.

Catcher -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.375	.435	.550	.985
2011	.263	.328	.365	.693

Losing Salvador Perez was huge but Humberto Quintero (.381/.462/.571) and Brayan Pena (.368/.400/.526) have been excellent at the plate thus far. Both are playing well above their heads in the early going, and it certainly won't last, but right now they are not a contributing factor in the team's inability to score runs.

First Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.167	.259	.333	.593
2011	.272	.323	.442	.764

Eric Hosmer, however, is another story. Since leaving Anaheim, where he had 4 hits and 2 home runs, he's put up a .118/.250/.176 line. More than one person have compared Hosmer to Will Clark, due to similar rookie seasons and because they are both left-handed first baseman. Clark's sophomore year he hit .308/.371/.580 with 35 home runs, but included in those numbers was a 14 game stretch where he hit just  .175/.250/.275. Slumps happen, Hosmer will be fine.

Second Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.311	.326	.444	.771
2011	.254	.301	.335	.636

The Getzancourt experiment has gone better than everybody not named Moore or Yost thought possible. Like catcher, this position hasn't been the problem. It's hard to be upset about the absence of Johnny Giavotella when his replacements have been this productive. I'll wager a healthy sum that they can't continue to put up a .771 OPS but until they revert back to their pre-2012 selves I'll ease up on criticizing Gio's demotion.

Third Base -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.239	.255	.435	.690
2011	.261	.311	.373	.683

If you had the difference in slugging percentage between Mike Moustakas (.419) and Chris Getz (.417) at just two points then step forward and collect your prize. In 11 games Moose has struck out 10 times and has failed to draw a single walk. His walk rate is one reason why he's always been considered less a sure thing than Hosmer. At some point he's going to get a free pass, but the question is, when, and will there be fireworks?

Shortstop -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.244	.292	.400	.692
2011	.252	.287	.339	.626

Alcides Escobar is getting on base at about the same clip as the rest of his career but the jump in slug is significant. He entered 2012 with a .339 slugging percentage but is at .400 in the early going. A .692 OPS with his defense will certainly play. Now whether he can continue at this pace is still in doubt but the talent is most assuredly there.

Left Field - 

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.163	.255	.265	.520
2011	.299	.374	.492	.867

A disappointing start to the season has some people worried about Alex Gordon but I have a strange feeling he's about to get hot. Like Hosmer, he's not going to hit like this all year. When those two get going the offense will improve tremendously.

Center Field - 

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.238	.292	.333	.625
2011	.301	.341	.462	.803

There's plenty of blame to go around in center as four different players have started a game there. Of those, Mitch Maier is the only one that has shown in inclination to actually hit. It doesn't help that Melky Cabrera is showing that last year may not have been a fluke as he's off to a terrific start (.314/.375/.471). We expected  this would be a position where offensive production would be down and it definitely has been. Maier should - and I expect will - play there everyday until Lorenzo Cain returns. Remember, Cain is no sure thing. He may be a defensive stud but he's yet to prove he can hit major league pitching.

Right Field -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.239	.286	.326	.612
2011	.285	.331	.467	.798

Jeff Francoeur enjoyed a career revival last season but has thus been incapable of carrying it over. For his career April has been his most productive month so his early struggles could be a precursor to a season like 2008 when he hit .239/.294/.359 with a career low 72 OPS+.

Designated Hitter -

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	.375	.400	.625	1.025
2011	.294	.365	.454	.819

Ned Yost has 99 problems but DH ain't one. Country Breakfast is on pace to accumulate 108 extra base hits. He is really locked in right now.

Rotation -

Year	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9
2012	4.41	1.43	3.9	6.7
2011	4.82	1.43	3.1	5.9

The Cleveland series really destroyed the rotation's numbers. Toss those three games in the trash where they belong and the group has a 2.91 ERA. My only quibble with the starters as a whole is they're not pitching enough innings and are taxing a struggling bullpen. Of course if Yost could bring himself to remember that he has a long reliever named Everett Teaford it would help. Teaford has appeared just once this year and pitched four scoreless innings. To put it another way, two weeks into the season and Teaford has the same amount of relief appearances as Maier.

Bullpen -

Year	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9
2012	4.26	1.35	3.0	10.2
2011	3.75	1.35	4.1	8.1

Yost's bullpen management has been a well documented problem most of his managerial career so it's no surprise that he made some questionable moves this year. But I'm here to help. Teaford, Ned, his name is Everett Teaford. Seriously though, this is a talented unit and I think they'll be fine. 

3-7

Before spring training started I predicted the Royals win 82 games this year. I made many assumptions in coming up with this number but there are four in particular that I was dead wrong about.

1. That Salvador Perez would catch 130+ games this year.
2. That Felipe Paulino - and not Luis Mendoza - would begin the season in the rotation.
3. That Johnny Giavotella would be the #2 hitter and starting second baseman.
4. That Joakim Soria would be the closer and not suck.

The disabled list has claimed three of the players while Getzancourt blocked the other. But still, all is not lost. It's easy to dismiss the first ten games as "same old Royals" and assume they're on their way to another 90+ loss season. I can't fault anyone who feels that way. The Cleveland series was particularly distressing because it represented what the season as a whole would like in a worst case scenario. However, I'll go on record as saying that KC will not look that pathetic again this season.

If you're the optimistic sort, though, and are looking for anything to suggest that a 3-7 start isn't disastrous, then I have three examples you may be interested in, last year's Tigers, Rays and Red Sox.

Yr	Tm	W	L	R	RA	Rdiff	Result
2011	Tigers	3	7	43	56	-13	95-67, AL Central Champion
2011	Rays	2	8	36	49	-13	91-71, Wild Card
2011	Red Sox	2	8	38	69	-31	90-72
2012	Royals	3	7	41	52	-11	????

Ned Yost's Perfect Lineup

After watching Jarrod Dyson make an out in four of his five plate appearances yesterday Ned Yost decided to give the speedster another go at the top of the lineup. Yost has again fallen prey to the oldest of myths, that a leadoff hitter's speed is more important than his ability to get on base. Yost's double dose of insanity got me thinking about what his all time perfect lineup would look like, you know, just for fun. It's another exercise in pointlessness but it gave me an excuse to spend some time on baseball-reference.com.

1. 1982 Omar Moreno CF - .242/.292/.315 60 steals
2. 1990 Jay Bell SS - .254/.329/.362 39 sacrifice bunts
3. 1992 Carney Lansford 3B - .262/.325/.369 Former batting champ (past = present)
4. 1983 Tony Armas RF - .218/.254/.453 36 HR's 107 RBI's 
5. 1972 Dave Kingman DH -.225/.303/.462 29 HR's 83 RBI's
6. 1977 Lee Mazzilli - LF  .250/.340/.339 24 doubles, 22 steals
7. 2004 Ken Harvey 1B - .287/.338/.421 All-Star
8. 1983 Ned Yost C - .224/.243/.352 (Player-manager, duh!)
9. 2011 Chris Getz 2B - .255/.313/..287 Mistake free.

According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool the above lineup would score 3.77 runs per game, but there's speed at the top, so it's all good.

Classic Ned

For the second time this week Ned Yost is trotting out a lineup that is a real head scratcher. Mistaking speed for on base ability he has inserted Jarrod Dyson into the leadoff spot. Now granted he's not the first manager to do such a thing, and certainly won't be the last, but Kansas City already has a leadoff hitter, and a good one at that. Yost made one of the best decisions of managerial career last year when he moved Alex Gordon to leadoff. This year, A1 was mired in a five game slump but busted out of it Wednesday when he got on base three times and hit his first home run of the young season. Today, though, he will bat fifth, one spot in front of Yuniesky Betancourt. He likely won't see too many hittable pitches.

Here's the full lineup:
CF Jarrod Dyson
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Eric Hosmer
DH Billy Butler
LF Alex Gordon
2B Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Mike Moustakas
C Humberto Quintero
SS Alcides Escobar

Francoeur is an odd choice to bat second but I really have no problem with it for two reasons. First, and as has been mentioned before, this team doesn't really have a prototypical #2 hitter. Johnny Giavotella was originally tagged for that spot, but remember, he was demoted during spring training when the Royals discovered he was below average defensively, Because apparently they didn't know before. The second reason I don't mind Francoeur hitting second is because of his reputation as Mr. April.

Read more here: http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/1013#storylink=cpy

I	Split	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	April/March	643	.280	.323	.481	.805
	May	706	.247	.286	.374	.660
	June	633	.255	.297	.378	.675
	July	643	.280	.323	.470	.793
	August	790	.276	.323	.432	.755
	Sept/Oct	708	.286	.325	.465	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

As you can see he is his most productive the first month of the season and he's off to another good start this year batting .333/.391/.429 in 23 plate appearances. If you're wondering if he's ever hit second before, the answer is yes, twice actually, in a game he didn't start. He had a walk and a sacrifice fly. So there's that.

This lineup could work but it wouldn't make it any less nonsensical. Yost once hit Willie Bloomquist third and Spork responded by hitting a freaking game winning home run. But even though the end result was productive Bloomquist never hit third again, because it was an insane idea. I suspect if Dyson steals just one base today we'll see him at the top of the lineup until Lorenzo Cain comes off the disabled list.