Your Yearly Reminder That Freddie Patek Was An Opening Day Beast

Freddie Patek may have only posted a 78 OPS+ in his time with the Royals, but on Opening Day, he came to play.

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB
1	1971-04-06	KCR	CAL	W 4-1	5	5	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
2	1973-04-06	KCR	CAL	L 2-3	4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
3	1974-04-05	KCR	MIN	L 4-6	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
4	1975-04-07	KCR	CAL	L 2-3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5	1976-04-09	KCR	CHW	L 0-4	3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
6	1977-04-07	KCR	DET	W 7-4	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
7	1978-04-08	KCR	CLE	L 5-8	4	3	1	2	1	0	1	3	0
8	1979-04-05	KCR	TOR	W 11-2	4	4	1	4	0	0	0	1	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Patek hit .367/.424/.600 overall on Opening Day in 33 plate appearances. 

A New Beginning

I never made an official announcement but at the beginning of October I began doing my primary writing at Kings of Kauffman. I never posted here enough to make this a blog people would check on a regular basis. Site attendance thrived when I posted regularly but that's not something I was able to do on a consistent basis. About a year ago I started thinking that my four to six posts a month would be better served elsewhere. Such few posts work better on a multi-staffed blog rather than one with a single writer. There was a humorous bidding war on twitter for my services (hello, ego boost) but I ultimately chose KoK because Mike Engel is one of my favorite people in the Royals blogosphere and because he first asked me to join his crew a couple years ago.

Now that's not to say I'm turning the lights out here. I've invested too much time in this blog to completely abandon it. While I won't cross post I will still do something here every now and then (three paragraph rants, play index oddities, etc.). I don't expect anyone to check back to see if I posted something new but if you follow me on twitter or Google+ you'll know when I do.

I started this blog in January of 2008 because I felt the Royals were about to turn the corner but five seasons later they're no closer to competing than they were when I clicked publish for the first time. Despite that, I kept writing, because it turned out to be something I really enjoyed. For the most part I count what I've done here as a success - I've met some really cool people, made a couple radio appearances and wrote a Sunday column for a newspaper. Those are things I never imagined happening when I started all this on a whim. Thank you to everyone that read something here, I really did appreciate your support.

With the sappy stuff out of the way here's a quick rundown of what I've been up to lately:

• On October 5th I wrote why Kevin Seitzer was The Fall Guy and why he shouldn't have fell alone.
• On October 10th I offered up The Top Age 26 Seasons In Royals History (Freddie Patek alert).
• On October 13th I had a few thoughts about the playoff production of Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez in a post unimaginatively titled Carlos And Raul.
• On October 16th I took a look back at the Royals' Historically Mediocre 2012 rotation.
• On October 23rd I searched play index and found Seven Eric Hosmer Comps Who Rebounded At Age 23 (list includes four Hall of Famers).
• On November 7th I wrote about Jeff Francoeur and Wil Myers in Keeping A Good Man Down.
• On November 15th I compared starting pitching performances the last six years to every six year period in team history in Year Six Series: The Rotation.
• On November 24th I claimed rotation questions are the same and Only The Names Have Changed.
• On November 28th it was the offense's turn in in Year Six Series: The Hitters.

Treading Water While Watching Others Swim

Luke Hochevar's Place In Royals History

I was previously convinced that Luke Hochevar was coming back for the 2013 but now I'm not so sure. He finished the season with a 9.56 ERA in 6 September starts (32 innings) and much of that was done after the team famously gave him a vote of confidence. He ended the year with a 72 ERA+ and if you're wondering where that ranks in team history, let me show you. Of the 119 times a Royals pitcher has thrown 162+ innings our Luke is sitting at #2.

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	Year	Age
1	Jose Lima	63	168.2	2005	32
2	Luke Hochevar	72	185.1	2012	28
3	Brian Bannister	75	182.2	2008	27
4	Rich Gale	76	181.2	1979	25
5	Zack Greinke	76	183.0	2005	21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

If you're an rWAR kind of guy it's more of the same:

Rk	Player	WAR	IP	Year
1	Jose Lima	-1.8	168.2	2005
2	Rich Gale	-1.7	181.2	1979
3	Luke Hochevar	-1.6	185.1	2012
4	Larry Gura	-1.0	168.2	1984
5	Brian Anderson	-0.6	166.0	2004

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Depending on what floats your boat he had the second or third worst season by a pitcher who lasted the entire season in the rotation. It gets worse. Did you know that in Royals history 18 pitchers have tossed 750 career innings? You probably already know that Hochevar has the lowest ERA+ in that group but did you also know that he's the only one below 100? It's true. There have been worse pitchers to suit up in Royals blue but they weren't allowed to pitch that many innings. Because they were terrible.

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP
1	Luke Hochevar	79	771.0
2	Paul Splittorff	101	2554.2
3	Dick Drago	101	1134.0
4	Steve Busby	105	1060.2
5	Jeff Suppan	105	864.2
6	Al Fitzmorris	106	1098.0
7	Dennis Leonard	107	2187.0
8	Larry Gura	107	1701.1
9	Tom Gordon	108	1149.2
10	Mark Gubicza	110	2218.2
11	Buddy Black	111	977.2
12	Marty Pattin	112	825.2
13	Charlie Leibrandt	116	1257.0
14	Zack Greinke	116	1108.0
15	Bret Saberhagen	128	1660.1
16	Kevin Appier	130	1843.2
17	Jeff Montgomery	138	849.1
18	Dan Quisenberry	160	920.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

I get that they've stuck with him this long because they are still trying to justify his draft status. But that's hilarious to me because they've not attempted to do the same with Aaron Crow. Hochevar is who he is at this point and it would be the height of silliness to not only bring him back but to give him a raise in the process. The 5 million dollars he may make next year could and should be used elsewhere in a rotation upgrade. I hope Dayton Moore is on board with this thinking. It was easy to spin the "new Luke" last winter after he finished 2011 on a positive note but this time such a claim would be a tougher sell.

I'm probably the last Royals blogger to weigh in on David Glass' comments about spending money to fix the rotation. That's great, if he means it, but I wonder if Moore is willing to spend, because I have my doubts. His earlier comments to first look internally didn't inspire me with confidence. Bringing back Jeremy Guthrie is only a rotation upgrade if you ignore the fact that he's in the current rotation. Sure a whole season would be nice but there are still four big question marks that must be addressed. If more than one of Hochevar/Chen/Smith/Mendoza open 2013 as a starting pitcher then I think you can kiss contention goodbye. Don't even waste your breath saying hello.

Here's how I'd like the 2013 rotation to look:
1. Newcomer via trade or free agency
2. Newcomer via trade or free agency
3. Guthrie
4. Jake Odorizzi
5. Chen/Mendoza/Smith/Crow

There's also the significant difference between spending and spending wisely. If Moore does decide to dabble in the free agent market let's not forget that he once gave Brett Tomko 3 million dollars. I hated that signing immediately and it's one that I feel hasn't drawn enough criticism. Tomko was coming off a 2007 season in which he put a 77 ERA+, and was about to turn 35 years old. He was predictably terrible and was released in June after posting a 62 ERA+ in 60.2 innings. A year later Moore gave Horacio Ramirez 1.8 million to compete for a rotation spot. Luckily he only made 1 start but was so bad overall (75 ERA+, 1.67 WHIP) that he too was released in June (He only made 1 start because Moore later brought in Sidney '60 ERA+' Ponson. Yeah, that actually happened). And of course there's the 2 year, 9 million deal he gave Chen last winter that has worked out so wonderfully.

It's great that Glass is willing to spend but if Moore plans on perusing the clearance rack again then I fail to see the point. It's not an upgrade if the pitchers you bring are just as terrible as the ones they're replacing. If Moore interpreted Glass' comments as a warning shot that his time is short then he may go hard after an Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez or Dan Haren (if he is indeed available). I think it's more likely, though, that we suffer through another winter of Jair Jurrjens and John Lannan rumors before Moore overpays for a pitcher that is statistically underwhelming.

Odorizzi

With just a few weeks left in the season the Royals finally decided to call up Jake Odorizzi (or Ody, as he's soon to be called by Ned Yost). The 22 year old right-hander had a successful season splitting time between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha.

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9
2012	2 Teams	15	5	3.03	25	145.1	50	135	1.252	8.2	3.1	8.4
2012	Northwest Arkansas	4	2	3.32	7	38.0	10	47	0.974	6.4	2.4	11.1
2012	Omaha	11	3	2.93	18	107.1	40	88	1.351	8.8	3.4	7.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

But now that he's got the call when will he get the ball? From the article linked above:

“He won’t start against any contending clubs,” Yost said. “We’ve got two series against Cleveland. We might start him at the end of this week here in one of those games against Cleveland.”

Well there you go. In a misguided and hilarious attempt to protect the integrity of the Al Central race Yost has decided it wouldn't be right to start Odorizzi against the White Sox and the Tigers. It's hilarious and misguided because of two pitchers he will start against them - Bruce Chen (76 ERA+) and Luke Hochevar (76 ERA+). 

Odorizzi will make his first start September 23rd against the Indians. Waiting until Sunday means his next start will fall on September 28th, also against the Indians. (Of course that's if he gets a second start, this is the Royals we're talking about.) A possible third and final start would fall on the season's last day against the Tigers, but if neither Chicago or Detroit has taken care of business by then, Odorizzi would presumably get bumped.

It's difficult to evaluate players in September because of expanded rosters, so you take such evaluations for what they're worth, but if I had a choice between sending Odorizzi against teams battling for first place or one battling for fourth, well, I know which I'd choose. It's disappointing that Yost feels differently.

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I made a guest appearance on the most recent Pine Tar Podcast. We talked a little about the year thus far and about what to expect this off season. I had a great time talking to Clint and David so be sure to check that out.

Bringing Back Hochevar

The first two paragraphs of Bob Dutton's latest column will not be a pretty sight to those of you hoping to see Luke Hochevar non-tendered or traded this winter:

Let there be no doubt: the Royals remain bullish in their belief that right-hander Luke Hochevar can be a productive cornerstone in their rotation for years to come despite his ongoing inconsistencies in a disappointing season.

General manager Dayton Moore dismisses the suggestion the Royals might walk away from Hochevar, who is again eligible for arbitration, after the season. Manager Ned Yost barks “absolutely” when asked if Hochevar can be part of a championship rotation.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/10/3807643/royals-are-convinced-hochevar.html#storylink=cpy

I think it's safe to say that the Royals front office learned nothing from the Kyle Davies fiasco. They complimented Davies' talent at every turn, and gave him every opportunity to succeed, but the results never matched his stuff. Davies had a 77 career ERA+ when Dayton Moore finally gave up on the right-hander. 77, coincidentally, is Hochevar's ERA+ this year. To show how little he's come, in his first full season, back in 2008, Hochevar posted a 78 ERA+.

He gets dogged for being inconsistent but that's not exactly true. He's never had an ERA+ above 87 in any season, so you see, he is consistent, consistently bad. Davies, to his credit, actually hit 107 once. The only good thing I have left to say about Hochevar is that he is a reliable starter. You can be sure he'll take the mound every fifth, and there is some value in that, maybe not much, but some. The problem is he's not reliably good and has no business anywhere near the front of a rotation.

The main problem with the 2012 team has been the starting pitching. Bruce Chen is under contract for next year and, like Hochevar, is also sitting on a 77 ERA+. Bringing both back is a clear signal that Moore has no interest in seriously upgrading the rotation. The only pitcher in the current rotation that I want to see in next year's is Jeremy Guthrie and he may be pitching himself out of the Royals price range. It's time to part ways with Hochevar and wish him luck in the National League.
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Brett Myers has had a solid year but he has been absolutely demolished by the Royals. In 5 appearances totaling 3.1 innings they have hit .720/.704/.920 against him. He's faced 27 Royals, 18 have got hits and 12 have scored (32.40 ERA). His game logs tell the humorous tale.

Date	Tm	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
2012-06-18	HOU	KCR	0.2	8	5	5	0	0
2012-08-08	CHW	KCR	1.0	0	0	0	0	0
2012-08-18	CHW	KCR	1.0	4	4	4	0	0
2012-09-08	CHW	KCR	0.1	3	1	1	0	0
2012-09-09	CHW	KCR	0.1	3	2	2	1	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool

I don't understand why Robin Ventura brought him into a scoreless game in the 10th inning Sunday, but to be honest, I don't understand a lot of the things Ventura has done this year.
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Don't look now but Johnny Giavotella is starting to hit. He's batting .298/.353/.404 over his last 14 games. In an even smaller sample size he's batting .318/.423/.500 in September (7 games). And Sunday he became just the 12th Royal in history to walk 3 times and steal 2 bases in a single game. 

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	BB	SB
1	Joe Foy	1969-05-30 (2)	KCR	NYY	L 4-5	3	2
2	Freddie Patek	1975-04-15	KCR	OAK	W 4-3	3	2
3	Amos Otis	1975-05-01	KCR	CAL	W 11-10	3	4
4	Amos Otis	1975-05-25	KCR	BAL	W 9-1	3	3
5	Hal McRae	1976-06-01	KCR	OAK	W 5-2	3	2
6	Amos Otis	1976-06-20	KCR	CLE	L 8-11	3	2
7	Frank White	1979-04-27	KCR	CLE	W 15-7	3	2
8	Amos Otis	1979-06-03	KCR	MIL	W 6-1	3	2
9	Lonnie Smith	1985-07-01	KCR	OAK	L 3-4	3	2
10	Bill Pecota	1988-09-25	KCR	CHW	L 5-6	3	2
11	Willie Wilson	1988-09-25	KCR	CHW	L 5-6	3	2
12	Jay Bell	1997-09-27	KCR	CHW	W 10-4	3	2
13	Carlos Beltran	2004-04-20	KCR	CLE	W 15-5	3	3
14	Coco Crisp	2009-05-05	KCR	CHW	W 8-7	4	2
15	Johnny Giavotella	2012-09-09	KCR	CHW	W 2-1	3	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

His major league career has thus far been a disappointment, so  even though the sample sizes are indeed small, they are still encouraging.