Saturday, January 19, 2008

KC's Big 3

Ok now that you are done laughing hear me out. Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Grienke are the best 123 punch KC has had since the 1980's (man I loved Bret Saberhagen). I mean they clearly are not Mulder/Hudson/Zito but they are good, very good.

Meche - 128 ERA+
Bannister - 121 ERA+
Grienke - 127 ERA+

Care to guess how many teams last season had three pitchers with 100+ innings post an ERA+ above 120? How about ONE, thats right the Kansas City Royals. The Angels came close ( Lackey 151, Escobar 134, Weaver 117) and the Cubs almost had four (Lilly 122, Zambrano 118, Hill 119, Marshall 119).

Zack Greinke 7-7 3.69era 122IP 106K/36BB

I know Greinke split time between the rotation and the pen but after posting a 2.33 era in his final 5 starts he may finally be harnessing his talent. Greinke became a power pitcher after his demotion and had a better K rate as a reliever (53.1IP/55K's) but when he rejoined the rotation he still was bringing the heat (34IP/31K's last 7 starts vs 34.2IP/20K's first 7 starts).

Prediction: 16-10 3.15 era

Gil Meche 9-13 3.67era 216IP 156K/62BB

If Meche had gotten any kind of run support he could have won 18 games and people may be taking him more seriously. The Royals scored 4 runs or less in 11 of his 13 losses. He was solid though for KC and the lack of run support didnt seem to frustrate him. I expect Meche to be even better this year and hopefully the bats will come around.

Prediction: 14-8 3.30era

Brian Bannister 12-9 3.87era 165IP 77K/44BB

Bannister seems the most likely to regress mainly due to his low K rate. But he is a smart pitcher with great control so we will see how it goes this year.Bannister made strong case for ROY but a 7.30 era in his last 5 starts doomed him.

Prediction: 10-14 4.20era

6 comments:

  1. Is there a prize for first comment?

    Bill James has the following predictions for the 3 in '08:
    Bannister 10-10, 3.85 ERA
    Greinke 8-11 4.29 ERA
    Meche 10-13 4.33 ERA

    I see no way for the offense to give Meche less run support than last year, so I give him at least 13 or 14 wins. This might finally be the year that Greinke brings it all, all season long. I can't wait.

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  2. Apparently, I was beaten to this blog.

    As for the predictions, maybe a bit optimistic, but I can't say I don't hope they happen.

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  3. Minda: IMO the offense will be better this year resulting in more wins for Greinke and Meche. I think they both have era's under 4. If James thinks Bannister can post a 3.85 era then he is way more optimistic than me.

    old man duggan:They may be a bit optimistic but I really liked what I saw from Greinke and Meche and I really believe they are gonna be even better this year. W's may be a bit high but that is at the feet of the offense.

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  4. Greinke will win 20 this year but I think Bannister will get bombed and Meche will get hurt.

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  5. I do appreciate that there is a Royal fan blog. I really do hope that you guys can pull something together this year.

    Side note - I'm a Red Sox fan. Don't hate

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  6. There are alot of good Royals blogs. No hating allowed in here.

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