Saturday, October 25, 2008

The World Series and the 2002 draft

So while watching the Hamels/Kazmir match up in game one I got to wondering how the rest of the pitchers taken in the first round of the 2002 draft performed in 2008. Sixteen pitchers were taken in the first round and while some have been major disappointments (the top four have failed to make an impact) others have turned into elite top of the rotation starters. (And isn't that what you are looking for in the first round?)

Player Pick Record ERA IP K/BB ERA+
Zack Greinke
6th 13-10 3.47 202.1 183/56 123
Jeff Francis
9th 4-10 5.01 143.2 94/49 92
Joe Saunders
12th 17-7 3.41 198 103/53 130
Scott Kazmir
15th 12-8 3.49 152.1 166/70 127
Cole Hamels
17th 14-10 3.09 227.1 196/53 142
Jeremy Guthrie
22nd 10-12 3.63 190.2 120/58 125
Joe Blanton
24th 9-12 4.69 197.2 111/66 89
Matt Cain
25th 8-14 3.76 217.2 186/91 116

Francis dealt with injuries but was coming off an impressive 2007 season (17-9 215 IP 114 ERA+). Blanton was ineffective but has a track record of an innings eating middle of the rotation starter (he's also starting game four of the World Series).

Zack holds his own compared to his draftmates and while it may have taken him longer to get established he's there with them right now and most likely will get better. Hamels is the only one I would trade straight up for him, Kazmir has electric stuff but is a bit too fragile for my taste. So this convinces me now more than ever that Greinke should not be traded unless he flat out rejects any extension talk - and even then only if Moore gets an overwhelming offer.


  1. interesting chart their jeff! looks like we're trying to get a 2002 arm of our own in Matt Cain. you can check out a post about it on my blog.

    thanks for the email. i'll respond shortly!

  2. I like Cain alot, he would be a good pickup for the Twins.

  3. A Greinke trade could set up KC for the next decade. No reason at all for him to be on the opening day roster.

  4. Greinke is the 3rd best pitcher in theat draft (Hamels, Kazmir). I cant wait to read your post about about the 2006 draft 6 years from now.