Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Meche's 2007 season was the best year a KC starter has had in the last 10 years. You have to go back to 1997 to find a pitcher who had an all around better season than Meche did last year. And that pitcher, Kevin Appier, was one of the best in baseball from 1990-1997
His 216 innings were the most since 2002 (Paul Byrd, 228)
His 3.67 era was the lowest since 1997 (Kevin Appier, 3.40)
His 156 strikeouts were the most since 1997 (Appier, 196)
His 128 era+ was the highest since 2003 (Darrell May, 130)
So here are the top 5 seasons by a KC starter in the last 10 years (162 min IP)
1. Gil Meche 2007 (9-13 3.67 era 128 era+ 216 IP 156 K's)
2. Darrell May 2003 (10-8 3.77 era 130 era+ 210 IP 115 K's)
3. Jose Rosado 1999 (10-14 3.85 era 130 era+ 208 IP 141 K's)
4. Paul Byrd 2002 (17-11 3.90 era 127 era+ 228.1 IP 129 K' )
5. Brian Bannister 2007 (12-9 3.87 era 121 era+ 165 IP 77 K's)
Zack Grienke 2004 (8-11 3.97 era 120 era+ 145 IP 100 K's)
And here are the 5 worst:
1. Jose Lima 2005 (5-16 6.99 era 63 era+ 168.2 IP 80 K's)
2. Zack Grienke 2005 (5-17 5.80 era 76 era+ 183 IP 114 K's)
3. Mark Redman 2006 (11-10 5.71 era 82 era+ 167 IP 76 K's)
4. Brian Anderson 2004 (6-12 5.64 era 85 era+ 166 IP 70 K's)
4. Darrell May 2004 (9-19 5.61 era 85 era+ 186 IP 120 K's)
Chris George 2003 (9-6 7.11 era 69 era+ 93.2 IP 39 K's)
It's amazing that all these guys were allowed to pitch that many innings. In fact, Redman was KC's pitcher of the year in '06. I guess Leo Sweetland and the 1930 Phillies were ahead of their time.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
age 28: 11-12 4.84 era 90 era+ 176.2 IP
age 29: 7-7 4.22 era 114 era+ 140.2 IP
Stottlemyre was a decent pitcher before age 28 but a better one after. His two best strikeout seasons came at ages 30 and 33. If Meche puts up the numbers that Stottlemyre did at 28-32 then I will be pleased.
age 28: 14-12 4.11 era 105 era+ 201.2 IP
age 29: 9-13 3.68 era 120 era+ 181 IP
Clement's age 29 season is the best of his career and it looks an awful lot like Meche's age 28 season. After regressing at age 30 Clement has been battling injuries ever since.
age 28: 13-7 4.07 era 106 era+ 150.1 IP
age 29: 13-8 3.45 era 112 era+ 185.1 IP
Like Stottlemyre and Clement, Schmidt also improved the next season. From ages 28-32 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, a true #1 starter.
age 28: 9-8 4.21 era 110 era+ 145.1 IP
age 29: 12-13 3.68 era 108 era+ 191 IP
Nixon was done by age 30. We at Royally Speaking do not like this comp.
age 28: 7-8 6.52 era 75 era+ 98IP
age 29: 2-1 3.55 era 143 era+ 33 IP
Injuries ruined a potentially nice career for Hamilton. By age 28 he was pretty much done and was out of baseball before his 33rd baseball.
age 28: 14-13 4.45 era 97 era+ 192.1 IP
age 29: 1-1 7.77 era 59 era+ 22 IP
Injuries derails another Meche comp. Hermanson did have a great year as a reliever in 2005 but age 28 was his last as a full time starter.
age 28: 8-18 5.56 era 81 era+ 205.2 IP
age 29: 8-15 4.80 era 104 era+ 200.2 IP
Trachsel became a reliable and consistent innings eater. I would probably be pleased if Meche matched his career but I'm betting that he will end up with better numbers. Trachsel has always been a mid-rotation type of pitcher and that was fine for him but Meche has better stuff.
age 28: 12-6 5.08 era 89 era+ 157.2 IP
age 29: 4-13 5.03 era 82 era+ 116.1 IP
Like Nixon, Wilson was done by age 30. His best years were from ages 24-26.
So what does all this prove? Not a thing, Meche is just as likely to become the next Nixon as he is the next Schmidt. Half these guys had their best years before age 28 and the other half had their best years after. Based on the small sample size of one year I would say Meche is in the Stottlemyre/Schmidt/Trachsel area more so than the others.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
February 23rd edit:
I now sponsor the Justin Huber page also.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
- Baseball America has released their top 10 Royals prospects. They do excellent work and have a really top notch staff but I do disagree some with their rankings. I like Moustakas at #1 but I would rank Hochevar ahead of Cortes. Also, they need to quit with the projected lineups three years down the road.
- Dayton Moore says Teahen and DeJesus need to produce this year. This is a make or break year for Teahen, he needs to return to 2006 form or this may be his last year in KC.
- Alex Gordon is hoping for a better season. Hillman plans to bat Gordon seventh this year which just baffles me. With Buck batting eighth and TPJ batting ninth why would any right handed pitcher in his right mind give Gordon anything to hit?
- Joe Posnanski claims KC is winning the Santana race. Is there a better sportswriter in America better than Joe? Is there one even close?
- Mike Sweeney won the Hutch award for his off the field causes. Saying Sweeney is a classy guy is like saying the sky is blue or the grass is green.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Maybe it was the 5.55 era or the 1.50 whip or that stellar era+ of 80 or just maybe they thought it was still 1997. Well whatever the reason the signing has an Elarton feel to it. I know teams like to have a veteran presence but this move is just absurd. Odalis Perez had an era+ of 84 last season and we all remember how bad he was.
~One of Tomko's comps at age 34 is Jamie Moyer, I can't believe Moyer has won 230 games. At age 33 he really figured things out. From ages 23-32 he won in double figures only twice, had an era under 4.00 twice , and had only one season with era+ over 120. From ages 33-44 he won in double figures eleven times (in twelve seasons and won 20 twice), had an era under 4.00 seven times , and had an era+ over 120 six times. ~
Maybe Tomko will prove me wrong and have a good year but I really doubt it.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Ok now that you are done laughing hear me out. Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Grienke are the best 123 punch KC has had since the 1980's (man I loved Bret Saberhagen). I mean they clearly are not Mulder/Hudson/Zito but they are good, very good.
Meche - 128 ERA+
Bannister - 121 ERA+
Grienke - 127 ERA+
Care to guess how many teams last season had three pitchers with 100+ innings post an ERA+ above 120? How about ONE, thats right the Kansas City Royals. The Angels came close ( Lackey 151, Escobar 134, Weaver 117) and the Cubs almost had four (Lilly 122, Zambrano 118, Hill 119, Marshall 119).
Zack Greinke 7-7 3.69era 122IP 106K/36BB
I know Greinke split time between the rotation and the pen but after posting a 2.33 era in his final 5 starts he may finally be harnessing his talent. Greinke became a power pitcher after his demotion and had a better K rate as a reliever (53.1IP/55K's) but when he rejoined the rotation he still was bringing the heat (34IP/31K's last 7 starts vs 34.2IP/20K's first 7 starts).
Prediction: 16-10 3.15 era
Gil Meche 9-13 3.67era 216IP 156K/62BB
If Meche had gotten any kind of run support he could have won 18 games and people may be taking him more seriously. The Royals scored 4 runs or less in 11 of his 13 losses. He was solid though for KC and the lack of run support didnt seem to frustrate him. I expect Meche to be even better this year and hopefully the bats will come around.
Prediction: 14-8 3.30era
Brian Bannister 12-9 3.87era 165IP 77K/44BB
Bannister seems the most likely to regress mainly due to his low K rate. But he is a smart pitcher with great control so we will see how it goes this year.Bannister made strong case for ROY but a 7.30 era in his last 5 starts doomed him.
Prediction: 10-14 4.20era
Thursday, January 17, 2008
I have been a Royals fan all 36 years of my life. I remember the good times and the recent times. Something is happening in Kansas City, something that hasn't happened in a while. People are getting excited about a team that has finished in last place four straight years. This team is right on the verge of being relevant again and that is why I started this blog. This is my way of being a part of it. I know it sounds corny, and it probably is, but I don't care. I can't not be a Royals fan, it's just a part of who I am. I have never blogged before but I have been very opinionated on message boards so I figure there's probably not much of a difference.
So I'm going to post on here a few times a week about my team. Here are a few things about me you should know.
1. I am not a writer so there are going to be grammatical errors but I'll try to keep them to a minimum.
2. I am not a stathead. I do like stats but I prefer the actual ones a player puts up as opposed to mathematical formulas. ( My apologies to Bill James, who I do like.)
I have no use for win shares, vorp, warp, or anything with a Q in it. I'm not criticizing anyone who do like those stats I'm just not one of them. Now the exceptions I have to this rule are ops+ and era+. I do like those now that I have educated myself on what they mean.
**Side note to statheads, if you are in a message board debate and you use a stat but can't explain what it means then you should immediately stop using that stat until you understand it better.**
3. I am going to focus solely on the Kansas City Royals. I'm not going to do prospect reports or a draft report. Other bloggers do this and they do it better than I possibly could.
Thats about it, I hope everyone who visits my blog enjoys what they find.