In part 1 Ray and I answered five questions about the AL Central and in part 2 I ask those same questions to two of my recent guest bloggers; Andrew Reilly of Southside Baseball and Kurt Mensching of Mack Avenue Tigers.
I am pretty thrilled that my next two guests found the time in their busy schedules to participate. They are Ross Martin, Assistant Sports Editor of the St. Joseph New-Press in St. Joseph, MO and Nick Wright, the host of What's Wright with Nick Wright and the Royals M&I Bank Postgame Show on 610 Sports.
1. Who will be the surprise team?
Andrew - It's easy to write them off considering who they lost this winter, but people forget that the Twins have done just fine without marquee players before. It'd be a total shock if they made the playoffs, but it'd be just as shocking if Ron Gardenhire can't coax a .500 season out of the kids.
Kurt - The White Sox. I am just not sure if they'll be surprising in a good
way or bad way! Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA doesn't like them, and it
tends to be right. They could very well fall down to fourth in the
standings. And yet, I don't know, call it a gut feeling or something,
I think they're going to have a pretty good season and really can't
explain why.
Ross - Can you say anyone but the Minnesota Twins? This team always finds a way to re-invent itself, and everyone's ready to write them off with Johan Santana leaving. But you can stop right there.
This team always has one of the biggest home-field advantages in baseball, and there's that former MVP first baseman (I think his name is Morneau) which makes that lineup go. Sure, an again Torii Hunter left, and there's a hole at the top of the rotation to fill. I still don't think this team will finish last.
Nick - The surprise team, in my opinion, will be the Royals. I say this not because the Royals will compete for the division, they won't, but rather because I also don't think they will finish in last place. KC should field a young, competitive team that should sniff 80 wins, finishing most likely somewhere around 75-87, firmly in fourth, rather than fifth, place.2. What team will disappoint?Andrew - It pains me to say it, but this has to be the White Sox. Despite the insistence of fans that Nick Swisher is going to hit 50 home runs while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA, the Sox are still starting with a 72-win team. Phrases like "addition by subtraction" and "quality ballplayers" sound reassuring, but when 60% of your rotation posted ERAs over 5 last year and your best hopes for bullpen improvement are a guy coming off of surgery and a guy who actually got worse by moving to the weakest division in the league, you're setting yourself up for heartbreak. To put it another way: even an 18-game turnaround still means only 90 wins, which doesn't get you much outside the Little League showcase that is the NL Central.
Kurt - The Twins. Maybe not disappoint as compared to the expected record. I
don't think anyone expects the Twins to be that good based on the team
they'll be putting on the field. But just in general, you think of the
Twins as an extremely well-run franchise that wins on the cheap, and I
just don't think they got enough value for their offseason moves.
Ross -
This might not be the popular answer, but I think it's the Detroit Tigers. Everyone's ready to crown them World Series champions after adding Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera to an already stacked roster. So how can they disappoint? Anything less than 100 wins and a World Series would be a disappointment. One year removed from a World Series appearance, the addition of stars like Willis and Cabrera will create unrealistic expectations. This isn't a team prepared to sneak into the playoffs with a Wild Card and 86 wins.
But could that be a possibility?
Willis struggled last year, well off of his Cy Young form of the past, and batting champion Magglio Ordonez went un-injured last year -- an ominous sign for a previously injury-prone player. Let's not forget Granderson's hurt to start the year, and the rotting corpse that is Kenny Rogers is expected to contribute to the rotation. What is he 65? Shouldn't he be eligible for retirement and social security?
I'm not sold on this Super Team yet? (I bet I regret this three months from now when the Tigers have a 20-game lead)
Nick - The team that I think will disappoint is the Minnesota Twins. Not that people are expecting big things from the Twins, but after losing Hunter and Santana, I think this team will be very bad, most likely last place in the division. The runner-up for disappointing team is the Cleveland Indians. After Cleveland got within one game of the World Series last year, I project the Indians to miss the playoffs this year.
3. Who will be the best pitcher?Andrew - For all the wrong reasons, you have to look to C.C. Sabathia on this one. He's the reigning Cy Young winner, he's playing in his contract year, and God hates Cleveland sports (seriously, look it up). If the Tribe is out of it come July, look for Sabathia to be dangled as some XXXL trade bait; if they're still in it, he's pitching for pride and a huge payday by making up for last October's disappointment. There's no shortage of pitching talent in the division, but it's hard to see Mark Buehrle putting up anything more than his usual consistent line or Francisco Liriano miraculously repeating his pre-Tommy John performances. Justin Verlander could very well dominate the league, but smart money is always on the guy with the bigger gut and less to lose.
Kurt - I guess I'd still have to go with Cleveland's CC Sabathia, although
Justin Verlander could very well be the best pitcher. But I don't want
to take the hometown guy, so I'll say C.C. is my Cy Young favorite now
that Johan Santana is a national leaguer.
Ross -
The best pitcher plays in Cleveland, but it's not C.C. Sabathia. Fausto Carmona is ready to break out of Sabathia's gigantic 6-foot-7, obese shadow and show why he won 19 games a year ago. This year, 22 might not be out of the question, and the Tribe could be looking for another playoff berth if Carmona does produce that way.
Nick - I also have two guys for best pitcher. I think Verlander will continue to be dominant for Detroit. But I also think that Fausto Carmona will emerge to be the true ace of the Indians, moreso than C.C. Sabathia.
4. Who will be the best hitter?Andrew - Everyone loves Miguel Cabrera, but anyone making a transition from the weaker National League is going to take time to adjust the the superior pitching. Magglio Ordonez isn't probably not going to hit .363 again, and most of the Sox' sluggers are past their days of being called the best hitter in the division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are playing without what little protection Torii Huner provided, and absolutely no one is afraid of any of the Royals left standing. After last year's abysmal performance, the logical candidate then is Travis Hafner. He's batting between the same guys as before, but Cleveland's going to need all the offense it can get to keep up with the Tigers and to compensate for their shaky bullpen, and Hafner's got the skills to step up his game. A .315/40/125 season isn't out of the question.
Kurt - Hometown guy or not, you really have to take Detroit's Miguel Cabrera
based on his being such an incredible slugger already in his young
career. And now he doesn't have to do it all and he'll see some good
pitches to hit.
Ross -
This might depend on what you're looking for. If you want pure power, Justin Morneau, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome have the potential. If you want balanced numbers, Magglio Ordonez might be your guy. I'll opt for a tie between two other balanced hitters -- Cleveland's Grady Sizemore and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Sizemore proved last year that he offers a skill set not often seen from a leadoff man. Cabrera could be set for an absolutely monster year moving from the anonymity of south Florida to a potent lineup which will offer this youngster added protection -- more hittable pitches could lead to a .390, 40 HR, 120 RBI-type season for Miggy.
So I guess in actuality I like Cabrera more than Sizemore, unless Cabrera doesn't adjust to American League pitching.
(I feel like I've left the Royals out on a lot of this, so I will say I LOVE Billy Butler's potential, but to say he'll be better than these proven Major Leaguers isn't a safe bet.)
Nick - Miguel Cabrera will be the best hitter in this division, and he may compete to be the best hitter this division has had since Manny Ramirez was slugging homeruns at Jacobs Field. Miguel is finally paid the way he should be, and finally in a market that will fully embrace him and his team. Plus, he certainly has the lineup to protect him.
5. Who wins the division?Andrew - First in unemployment, first in homicide, first in the American League Central: ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Detroit.
Kurt - I'm going to go with Detroit, but only by a game or so over the
Indians. I think both teams might be a bit overhyped, to be honest
with you. I'd put them both around 91 wins. They are actually quite
similar teams when you get down to it. Tigers might have a bit better
hitting, Indians a bit better bullpen.
Ross -
I like the Indians. They won it last year and have a lot of the key pieces back in place. The starting staff is deep, and if the bullpen comes around again, the Indians are the favorites until proven otherwise. I think the Tigers have the most talent, but they're mixing in a new group and have to get performance and health to stay consistent.
Nick - From my picks for pitcher and hitter of the year, this may be obvious, but I think the Tigers will far and away be the best team in the Central. I look for them to win over 100 games, with no other Central team reaching 95 wins, or making the playoffs.
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I'm kicking some ideas around for a part 3 that may or may not happen. I want to thank Nick, Ross, Ray, Andrew, and Kurt for my helping me with my preview, it was alot of fun to put together.
