Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Around the Central

  • Baseball Digest, started in 1942 and is the nations longest running baseball only magazine, now has an online edition. It launched March 1st and I have agreed to be the content editor of the Royals page. I'll basically be doing there what I do here.
  • Andrew Reilly  gives his two cents on the Matt McCarthy controversy. I thought this book looked interesting and had planned on reading it but now I think I'll pass.
  • Nick Nelson wonders if shoulder injuries will be a problem for the Twins this season.
  • Samara Pearlstein looks at Jeremy Bonderman's health from a different perspective, his.
  • Brian La Shier writes that a healthy Travis Hafner is capable of an .890 OPS. He also believes that the Tribe can finish in the top three in runs in the AL. One is of course tied to the other but I'm a bit skeptical that Hafner can return to elite form.
  • Clint at Royals Report Card tells us why he still in believes in Chris Lubanski, he makes a compelling case for the former prospect. Despite Lubanski's falling stock I think he has more upside than both Shane Costa and Mitch Maier so it will be just a matter of time before he gets his chance at being the fourth outfielder in Kansas City.
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I've already posted my Mike Jacobs projection and feel quite confident that I'll be somewhat close. Next up is Jose Guillen and his age based comps show a down year coming for a cleanup hitter (yes I know last year was considered a down year too but 20 home runs, 97 RBI's and 42 doubles suggest he did do some things right). When computing Guillen's production I threw out the extreme outliers which were Luis Gonzalez (57 HR's 174 OPS+) and Jacque Jones (19 OPS+). Then I randomly chose five of the remaining eight to base my projection on and I think it is a distinct possibility that Guillen achieves this (unfortunately for us all).

Projection AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI
RSP .282/.335/.456 16 66
ZIPs .271/.321/.448 19 87
CHONE .265/.317/.428 18 79
Bill James .271/.322/.445 21 88

1 comment:

Chris said...

Your projection would most likely put his ops+ around 100 which isnt worth 12 million but isnt hurting the team either, I'd take it.