Meche Curiosities

Someone at Royalboard gave a little list of three things that are bothering him.

1. Meche has to work (too) hard.
2. Jacobs shouldn't bat against lefties
3. Buck/Aviles are easy outs.

Number 2 is actually pretty obvious but it is frustrating that Jacobs has had 20 less at bats against lefties than righties. Jacobs' struggles with us southpaws (I am certain I could get him out--especially if my "fastball" can convince him it's a change-up) have been well-documented and every documentation is right on. The man simply cannot do it so let's put the hopes to bed. Aviles is frustrating as his downfall has been much greater than could be anticipated. He has already inspired rumors to acquire his replacement.


Focusing on Point Number One...

The team and Gil Meche are both 1-3 in the last four Meche starts, so I was kinda wondering about a few things and figured I'd take a look and report on what I found.

• Through 7 starts, Gil Meche has averaged 102 pitches per game and is once again among the game's leaders in PAP (pitcher abuse points), which details how often a pitcher is going over the faux industry standard of 100 pitches per game. Meche has three times reached Baseball Prospectus' Category 3 (110-121 pitches) in its system. In his Royals career, Gil Meche has been used...well and often. Last year, Meche was sixth in the entire league in number of pitches thrown and tenth overall in total pitcher abuse points. In 2007, Meche was 11th in PAP and seventh in total number of pitches. The only positive trend would seem to be the average number of pitches between starts. However, considering what happened in Cleveland, you have to wonder how many of his starts have him going past a point of exhaustion. 100 is the industry standard but some people are built to go further than that and some wear down faster than that. The industry needs to do a better job of figuring out which pitcher is which. It probably wouldn't hurt to start piggy backing Meche over the next few starts in order to get him out on the mound but not to exhaust him too much. There is a set number of pitches for each individual pitcher. Each group of pitches (10-15) past that point is only asking for injury.
  

• I once read a statement that a starting pitcher should at least be able to get into the seventh inning on 90 pitches. (I'm not exactly sure who said this but I've been under the belief that it was Mike Arbuckle, then Phillie executive--it's been a couple of years.) In Gil Meche' Royals career, he's started 75 games. We're nearing the halfway point of his much publicized contract and while, I have been wrong thus far and Meche has been a worthwhile though still questionable contract, we still have a long ways to go yet. In his 75 starts, there have been 36 starts where he's gone six or less with 90 or more pitches (including five times this season and he was on pace to fall short in Toronto considering he went 3.67 innings on 84 pitches). Do keep in mind that there are outings where he went more than 6 and had 90 or more pitches but there's no documentation that I can find that stats when in the starts he went over the 90 threshhold. (Example of how this can skew reporting: 94 pitches to get through 6 innings and then a 1-2-3 7th on 9 pitches.)

• I'd like to look a bit further into the average number of pitches per start. As said, Meche is currently averaging 102 pitches per start and really, that's a pretty good number. You'd have to think that a man of Meche's size could handle a bit more--if it wasn't for his past being so littered with serious injuries. So 102 isn't bad at all. And looking at the complete seasons in his Royals career, 104.5 for '08 and 105 for '07. These numbers by themselves aren't too alarming, but really that's only a mask that is pulled over the eyes when assuming an 80-pitch start plus a 120-pitch starts equal a 100-pitch average. It does not, of course. After 80 pitches an MLB starter shouldn't be to the point of exhaustion. After 120, however, exhaustion could come well before that...and that's why PAP is important. I wanted to point out any starts where Meche has gone 75 or more pitches while being pulled before any starter should get pulled (6 innings). In this regard, his last start could be considered his worst of the season (120 pitches for 5.2 innings). In his entire Royal career, there have been 17 times when Meche has failed to go at least 6 innings while throwing 75 or more pitches, with 13 of these starts featuring a Meche at less than his best. If 3 ER or less in six innings is a quality game, I decided that he should give up 2 or less in 5 or less for me to consider him pitching well in those 17 games. (In those other four games, Meche was pitching well enough to hold the opposition, but battling enough to have a high enough pitch count that it wasn't pretty.) If you were to take out these 17 games, Meche, as a Royal, averages just a bit higher at 106 per start.

So far, Meche has no real trends statisically on a per month basis. In 2007, Meche had a brilliant start and continuously regressed through July, his worst month that season, and he pitched better in August until finishing almost as brilliantly as he started. Last season, Meche started poorly and progressively got better until August and September, where he pitched a bit worse than his trend but still pitched well (3.49 and 3.48). So far this year, he pitched well in April and very poorly in May (but only through 2 starts) ...