Monday, September 21, 2009

Lost among all the Tejeda/Davies comparisons....

Robinson Tejeda is a hot topic in the Royals blogosphere right now, as well he should be considering he has been a bright spot in a dark, dark year. But I really don't get the Kyle Davies comparisons. Yeah I know it appeared Davies broke out last year and had the great September but this season is more line with the rest of his career. 2008 was the first time he had an ERA+ above 100. Tejeda, meanwhile, has had only one season below 100. Let me repeat that - Robinson Tejeda has only one sub-100 ERA+ season in his career, 2007.

If you take out his 2006 season (and why can't we? we throw out Greinke's 2005 season all the time) his career ERA goes from 4.45 to 3.67 and his K/9 jumps from 7.5 to 7.9. His H/9 drops from 8.0 to 7.1. B-R's awesome play index shows only two pitchers in baseball (min. 150 IP) with an ERA 3.67 or lower, a K/9 of 7.9 or higher, and a 7.1 or lower H/9 (Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw).

As a Royal Tejeda now has a 3.04 ERA in 103.2 innings with 120 K's and a 142 ERA+. That's a 10.41 K/9 and that's why the Davies comp is a bad one.


devil_fingers said...

Keep in mind that most of Tejeda's numbers were accumulated as a reliever, not a starter. Pitchers are generally about 1 "run" of FIP/RA/whatever better as a reliever than they are as a starter. It has to do with getting down to just your best 1-2 pitches and not having to worry about conserve your energy and stuff.

Not that the Davies comparison is completely apt, but thewhole point is the small sample size issue. Here's an important point: Almost all pitchers (both starters and relievers) heavily regress towards about an 11%=12% HR/FB rate. Last season during his "breakout" (one of the dumbest non-concepts in the currency of baseball conversation), Kyle Davies had about a 6.9% HR/FB rate. This season, he's back at 11.7%. Back to suckitude.

Robinson Tejeda's HR/FB rate so far this season currently stands at 1.4%. That's insanely lucky.

Not saying that Tejeda isn't potentially useful as a #5 or maybe even #4 pitcher, but we should be realistic. More likely, he and Davies both are suited better to the bullpen.

Jeff Parker said...

I get your point and I understand why you are cautious. I'm buying into Tejeda because of his ability to miss bats. Period. Now one thing I haven't touched on but is probably a concern is does he have the stamina to start 32 games? I don't know, nobody does. But I'd rather they take a chance on him then overpaying some 30-something retread. And if it doesn't work then he can move back to the pen with the question answered on whether or not he should start.

Thanks for your input, that was a quality comment.