CHONE projected AL Central standings

The CHONE projected standings have been released and no surprise have the Twins coming out on top in the Central. I'd be shocked if they only win 85 games as I believe they are a legit threat to win 90. Here are the Central standings.

Team	W	L
Twins	85	77
Indians	81	81
White Sox	79	83
Royals	76	86
Tigers	76	86

The Royals 76 wins is what grabbed my attention though because I have them at around 70. I look at their offense, defense, and bullpen and I'm not seeing a lot to like. I think 76 is certainly possible if most of the what ifs actually happen but I certainly am not expecting them too.

The offense has been downgraded at LF, C, and 2B (I'm still expecting Getz to win the job) while being upgraded at RF and possibly DH. If the 2008 versions of Ankiel and Gordon show up then CF and 3B will also be upgrades and I actually think this is likely on both counts, at worst they're probably a wash. So at best the offense will be slightly better than last year, which is like saying The Postman was slightly better than Waterworld. I inserted the individual CHONE projections for who I think will be the starting nine into the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings and got 4.57 runs a game. That would come out to 740 runs which is better than 686 last year but would have only moved them up one spot in the 2009 AL rankings (13th to 12th).

The bullpen is hard to predict since we won't actually know who will be in it until close to opening day. It really depends which Juan Cruz shows up and if Robinson Tejeda makes the starting rotation. The potential is certainly there but it was last season too.

Still I like a bit of optimism being projected for the Royals even if I don't necessarily share it.