I like CHONE when it comes to projections so I thought it would be interesting to compare the 2009 projections of a few selected players with their actual performance and also see how they are projected to do this season. I don't know if you've spent anytime at
baseballprojection.com but it is a fascinating site and well worth a look.
| Billy Butler | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 CHONE | 14 | 81 | 1 | .289 | .356 | .444 |
| 2009 Actual | 21 | 93 | 1 | .301 | .362 | .492 |
| 2010 CHONE | 17 | 83 | 1 | .307 | .372 | .478 |
| Jason Kendall | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 CHONE | 3 | 45 | 6 | .251 | .329 | .321 |
| 2009 Actual | 2 | 43 | 7 | .241 | .331 | .305 |
| 2010 CHONE | 2 | 41 | 5 | .245 | .315 | .306 |
| Scott Podsednik | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 CHONE | 2 | 27 | 24 | .273 | .344 | .361 |
| 2009 Actual | 7 | 48 | 30 | .304 | .353 | .412 |
| 2010 CHONE | 4 | 34 | 20 | .275 | .336 | .368 |
| Rick Ankiel | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 CHONE | 25 | 85 | 3 | .253 | .319 | .475 |
| 2009 Actual | 11 | 38 | 4 | .231 | .285 | .387 |
| 2010 CHONE | 17 | 59 | 3 | .241 | .296 | .415 |
| David DeJesus | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 CHONE | 9 | 58 | 8 | .279 | .354 | .406 |
| 2009 Actual | 13 | 71 | 4 | .281 | .347 | .434 |
| 2010 CHONE | 11 | 64 | 6 | .278 | .351 | .410 |
Stats provided by baseball-reference and baseballprojection
The Kendall 2009 projection was dang near spot on, the others not so much. For 2010 they all look about right except DDJ who I think will have a better year than his projection. Bottom line is this offense is going to struggle to score runs.
Later this week I'll so the same thing with a few pitchers.
2 comments:
projections systems have underestimated DDJ every year. they got lucky in '07 when he had his down year. otherwise he always outperforms them. i expect nothing less this year.
I've noticed that, wonder why that is?
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