A popular theory has been bouncing around Royals blogs and message boards this offseason that goes something like this; Kyle Davies had a great 2008 September but then a terrible 2009 season so therefore Robinson Tejeda's 2009 September is suspect and shouldn't be trusted. It's unwise to make assumptions based on six starts (which I admit to sometimes being guilty of) but it's also unwise to say because player A did this then player B will to. It's tempting to make connections like that but in the case of Davies and Tejeda is not even close to being applicable.
First let's compare the Septembers in question.
| Player | Year | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | H/9 | SO/9 | BB/9 | SO/BB | AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davies | 2008 | 4 | 1 | 2.27 | 5 | 31.2 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 0.91 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 3.43 | .198/.246/.270 |
| Tejeda | 2009 | 3 | 1 | 2.84 | 6 | 31.2 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 1.10 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 1.60 | .138/.271/.248 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
Do you see the difference? Davies SO/BB and BB/9 were simply unsustainable and in 2009 they fell back down to normal. Meanwhile Tejeda's SO/BB and BB/9 were right around his career averages (1.44 and 5.2) which means, at least in my opinion, there wasn't anything fluky about his performance. Davies also hadn't shown much as a starter in his career before that month which is where the next difference lies - Tejeda has.
Tejeda as a starter:
| Year | Age | Tm | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | BB | SO | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 23 | TEX | 3 | 3 | 2.87 | 13 | 69.0 | 22 | 35 | 59 | 1.30 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 1.69 |
| 2006 | 24 | TEX | 5 | 5 | 4.28 | 14 | 73.1 | 35 | 32 | 40 | 1.56 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 1.25 |
| 2007 | 25 | TEX | 5 | 9 | 6.61 | 19 | 95.1 | 70 | 60 | 69 | 1.78 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 1.15 |
| 2008 | 26 | KCR | 1 | 0 | 1.80 | 1 | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 0.67 |
| 2009 | 27 | KCR | 3 | 1 | 2.84 | 6 | 31.2 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 1.10 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 1.60 |
| Totals | 17 | 18 | 4.52 | 53 | 274.2 | 138 | 150 | 202 | 1.51 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 1.35 | ||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (I love b-r's share feature)
2007 was ugly and if you remove it his ERA drops to 3.41 in 179.1 innings. I realize that sample size is too small and spread out over too many seasons but I just wanted to point out that season somewhat perverts his numbers (see also Greinke, 2005), overall his career ERA drops from 4.53 to 3.81 in a more substantial 278.1 innings.
2007 was ugly and if you remove it his ERA drops to 3.41 in 179.1 innings. I realize that sample size is too small and spread out over too many seasons but I just wanted to point out that season somewhat perverts his numbers (see also Greinke, 2005), overall his career ERA drops from 4.53 to 3.81 in a more substantial 278.1 innings.
I never bought into Davies September as much as I bought into his 2008 season as a whole and I thought he was more than capable of repeating his 107 ERA+, I was clearly wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong about Tejeda as I firmly believe he can put up a sub-4.50 ERA in 30 starts.
Now who wouldn't want that from a #5 starter?
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