Friday, October 15, 2010

Projections vs reality

Some of you may recall that back in March I tried my hand at projecting some players offensive numbers so now I thought it'd be interesting to see how my inner-Nostradamus fared. I didn't do too well which is why I guess such things are left to the more mathematically gifted. I didn't project Aviles because I forgot about him or Kila because I thought he wouldn't see any time in KC. I also didn't project playing time because honestly that would have taken more thought than I was willing to give it. So here's what I did do.

Jason Kendall
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 2 38 6 .249 .320 .325 .645
Actual 0 37 12 .256 .318 .297 .615

I actually wasn't too far off on Kendall but that's just because he's been so consistent in his mediocrity. His OPS the last four years (.610 .651 .636 .615) are a head turner in that he stunk but also averaged 529 plate appearances a season.

Billy Butler
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 24 90 1 .295 .365 .505 .870
Actual 15 78 0 .318 .388 .469 .857

Butler had an odd year but a good year. I think a lot of people focused entirely too much on the double plays* and missed the fact that his SO% (15.3 to 11.5) decreased while his BB% increased (8.6 to 10.2). His OPS+ of 134 was the highest by a Royal since Mike Sweeney's 148 way back in 2002. He didn't take the step forward power-wise that I thought he would but I didn't foresee the 26 point jump in his OBP% either.
*Butler became the fourth player since 1901 to hit into 30+ double plays while having an OPS+ of 130 or higher, the other three are all hall of famers (Ernie Lombardi 1938, Dave Winfield 1983, Jim Rice 1983). 

Yuniesky Betancourt
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 8 45 2 .260 .305 .380 .685
Actual 16 78 2 .259 .288 .405 .692

I guess missing his OPS by 7 points is pretty good but I didn't see 16 home runs coming at all. He is still a terrible baseball player, despite the many man crushes that fans developed after one of his grand slams (little bro I'm looking at you).

Alex Gordon
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 21 75 15 .270 .355 .468 .823
Actual 8 20 1 .215 .315 .355 .671

Predicting a Gordon breakout has become a spring tradition for me. I suppose I'll eventually be right but it's possible he won't be a Royal when/if it finally happens.

David Dejesus
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 10 62 7 .285 .351 .430 .781
Actual 5 37 3 .318 .384 .443 .827

A fluke injury derailed the best season of DDJ's career and cost Moore a potential trading chip. The guy seems to be under-rated every year and, yes, I was guilty of it too. His career 108 OPS+ ranks 7th among Royals with 3500+ PA's.

Willie Bloomquist
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 2 22 15 .273 .323 .340 .663
Actual 3 17 8 .265 .296 .388 .684

My newest goal in life is to never type the name Willie Bloomquist again. Starting now.

Scott Podsednik
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 3 50 32 .277 .336 .375 .711
Actual 5 44 30 .310 .353 .400 .753

He had a much better season than I thought he would. That's all I have to say about that.
Jose Guillen
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 8 41 0 .255 .310 .383 .693
Actual 16 62 1 .255 .314 .429 .743

I think it's sometimes easy to forget what 12 million dollars looks like. Soak it in!

Brayan Pena
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 5 31 0 .285 .338 .432 .770
Actual 1 19 2 .253 .306 .335 .642

After being virtually ignored the first five months of the season Pena hit .309/.349/.432 in 86 September PA's. Managerial-misplaced faith in an aging and ineffective Kendall robbed Pena of what could have been a fine season.
Chris Getz
HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Projection 4 47 21 .274 .329 .378 .707
Actual 0 18 15 .237 .302 .277 .579

Getz had an awful year which had the nice side effect of resurrecting the career of Mike Aviles. I expect Aviles to start at second base next year with Getz in a utility role.

I never got around to projecting pitchers, good thing too because I would've missed bad on Greinke and Hochevar.

2 comments:

  1. I just signed up to your blogs rss feed. Will you post more on this subject?

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  2. The blog is in a transition phase right now. More posts may be forthcoming or they may not.

    ReplyDelete