Millwood? Thanks but no thanks!

If the end of the Kyle Davies era means the beginning of the Kevin Millwood era then I say give me more Kyle. Michael Engel gives a pretty solid analysis of a potential Millwood signing over at KoK and while he's fine with it at the right price I am not. We've seen this played out before, a mid-30's pitcher past his prime is brought in on a one year deal and bombs. And while I can't know for certain he'd be terrible his recent history suggests he will be.

Year	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2007	10	14	5.16	31	172.2	213	19	67	123	89	1.622	11.1	3.5	6.4	1.84
2008	9	10	5.07	29	168.2	220	18	49	125	88	1.595	11.7	2.6	6.7	2.55
2009	13	10	3.67	31	198.2	195	26	71	123	127	1.339	8.8	3.2	5.6	1.73
2010	4	16	5.10	31	190.2	223	30	65	132	83	1.510	10.5	3.1	6.2	2.03

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Other than that fluky '09 season, which can probably be attributed to luck (.275 babip), he has been extremely hittable.  In the last four seasons only 24 pitchers have had a H/9 higher than 10.5 (min. 162 IP), Millwood and Livan Hernandez have done it three times, nobody else has done it twice.

Innings eater and veteran presence are labels thrown around that mean precious little to me. I mean look, if he's going to put up an ERA+ under 90 wouldn't you want him to pitch as little as possible? Low quality innings aren't suddenly transformed into something wonderful just because there are a lot of them. As for tutoring the younger pitchers, is he supposed to say "See how bad I was today? Don't do that."? Being vocal is fine and all but if a guy is continually getting bombed I gotta think any message he delivers isn't going to land.

Millwood's last best chance for any sort of success most likely rests in the National League, where 11% of batting orders consists of hitters that either bunt or strike out. I hope he realizes this and turns down what I'm sure will be a far too generous Royals offer.

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