Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Millwood? Thanks but no thanks!

If the end of the Kyle Davies era means the beginning of the Kevin Millwood era then I say give me more Kyle. Michael Engel gives a pretty solid analysis of a potential Millwood signing over at KoK and while he's fine with it at the right price I am not. We've seen this played out before, a mid-30's pitcher past his prime is brought in on a one year deal and bombs. And while I can't know for certain he'd be terrible his recent history suggests he will be.

Year W L ERA GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2007 10 14 5.16 31 172.2 213 19 67 123 89 1.622 11.1 3.5 6.4 1.84
2008 9 10 5.07 29 168.2 220 18 49 125 88 1.595 11.7 2.6 6.7 2.55
2009 13 10 3.67 31 198.2 195 26 71 123 127 1.339 8.8 3.2 5.6 1.73
2010 4 16 5.10 31 190.2 223 30 65 132 83 1.510 10.5 3.1 6.2 2.03
Other than that fluky '09 season, which can probably be attributed to luck (.275 babip), he has been extremely hittable.  In the last four seasons only 24 pitchers have had a H/9 higher than 10.5 (min. 162 IP), Millwood and Livan Hernandez have done it three times, nobody else has done it twice.

Innings eater and veteran presence are labels thrown around that mean precious little to me. I mean look, if he's going to put up an ERA+ under 90 wouldn't you want him to pitch as little as possible? Low quality innings aren't suddenly transformed into something wonderful just because there are a lot of them. As for tutoring the younger pitchers, is he supposed to say "See how bad I was today? Don't do that."? Being vocal is fine and all but if a guy is continually getting bombed I gotta think any message he delivers isn't going to land.

Millwood's last best chance for any sort of success most likely rests in the National League, where 11% of batting orders consists of hitters that either bunt or strike out. I hope he realizes this and turns down what I'm sure will be a far too generous Royals offer.

6 comments:

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Antonio. said...

I'm pretty thankful for the above comment.

I would like to say this, Jeff. A .275 BABIP is on the lucky side, but not to an extreme measure...definitely not extreme enough to post it by itself as evidence for the difference between your four seasons.

If you look at his other seasons, he was exceptionally unlucky, with BABIPs in the 320s. I think you might be able to expect an ERA+ of 100 or so.

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Old Man Duggan said...

Nice, Antonio. I hope Anon follows through with his pledge.

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