Saturday, December 4, 2010

Catching up

Every so often a post topic will come to mind but instead of sitting down and writing it I get distracted by Angry Birds or learn there's a Lost Tribe of the Sith ebook I haven't read. Next a few days seem to pass and I've lost the desire to write the post. Then it happens all over again (lather, rinse, repeat). So while I have the time and motivation I'm going to hit on several topics in this post.

Kevin Millwood will apparently not be a Royal in 2011. This works for me as at this point in his career he is not an upgrade over Davies or Mazzaro, who each have age on their side. While I'm not excited about watching Sean O'Sullivan pitch every fifth day I suspect he'll be the one bumped from the rotation when Teaford or Duffy is ready. It appears Moore has learned his lesson in bringing in veteran starters on the downside of their career (Tomko/Ponson I'm looking at you). If Greinke is dealt then it's probably a matter of time before Chen is re-signed, which I wouldn't hate.

On the subject of a possible Greinke trade, well, you already know where I stand. While many think he'll be traded to the loser of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes (meaning Yankees or Rangers) I'm not so sure. My gut is telling me he is not going anywhere, which of course is perfectly fine with me because I don't have the faith that Moore is capable of pulling off a Bartolo Colon type of deal. If you recall the Indians received Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and the aforementioned Lee - in other words they did very well. And I have a feeling that in five or six years the winner of Lee is going to wish they'd traded for and extended Greinke instead.

Josh Fields was non-tendered and is a free agent. This is disappointing and understandable, disappointing  because I thought a Fields/Kila DH platoon could be extremely productive but understandable because they are bringing Wilson Betemit back. Since it would be redundant to carry them both I have no problem with Moore choosing the one coming off a 141 OPS+ season. What this also means is that all KC has to show for trading Carlos Beltran is Chris freaking Getz. Well done Allard Baird, well done.

I don't get the Vin Mazzaro hate going on but if it's because of his low K/9 consider this; in Royals history there have been 75 seasons (min. 162 IP) where a pitcher had a 5.8 K/9 or lower and 54 of them (72%) sported an ERA+ of 100 or higher. Now while that's not a guarantee that Mazzaro will out perform expectations it does suggest it is possible. I suppose you can say that percentage is high because a lot of pitchers failed to reach 162 innings because of their low K/9 (Chris George comes to mind), and that would be a fair point, but I firmly believe that Mazzaro will start 30 games next season. For what it's worth Bill James has projected a 6.53 K/9 for Mazzaro in 2011, given his age (24) and the fact that his strikeout rose every level (A 6.1, A+ 6.7, AA 6.8, AAA 7.7) I think that is very possible.

Adam Dunn was signed by the White Sox which makes it extremely likely that he becomes the next player to torment Royals pitching. Thus far he's only played six games in his career versus KC and has hit .318/.423/.636 with two home runs. I'll predict that he hits between 5-10 home runs against KC next season. Gee, can't wait.


  1. How many of those seasons took place between 1969-1987?

  2. Интересный пост! Да и сама страничка очень понравилась!