Best Case Scenarios: Part I

Before delving into this, let’s ask ourselves this question: What does best case scenario even mean for the 2011 Kansas City Royals? For me, and probably for a realistic fan, it’s definitely not win or loss totals. Do not get me wrong, I want to see this team win as many games as possible. That is ultimately why we play the game. But not even the front office is delusional about this year with the thought that this team could do things.

This year, the best case scenario is to see as many players on the Major League Roster (we will get to the minors later) improve and solidify themselves as a part of this team moving forward. There are many very talented yet very frustrating and underperforming players on this team. It might be because they can’t take a walk, have a hole in their swing, can’t command the ball, or can’t stay out of the trainer’s room.

Now in addition, the other part of this “best case scenario” is that the Royals need to graduate and ease the transition into the Major Leagues for many prospects who could make their debuts this season. There is still a lot of trash to be taken out on the roster, and the Royals could feasibly have more than 10 rookies make their Major League debuts in 2011. From the great prospects like Mike Moustakas and Danny Duffy, to the less heralded youngsters like Louis Coleman and Johnny Giavotella, these guys could all play a pivotal part in the future of this team. So let us get into some of the things that would go a long ways to helping out the Royals in the future.

I’ll start with a couple pitchers – Luke Hochevar and Vin Mazzaro. Hochevar is obviously the superior talent here, but he’s been inconsistent and hit with injuries the past couple years. The horrendous defense behind him hasn’t helped either and that projects to change greatly in 2011. Hochevar posted a career best FIP and xFIP in 2010 and is probably the best “breakout” candidate on the roster. Mazzaro is a different story, kind of the anti-Hochevar if you will. He posted a solid ERA but had very good defense behind him and his K and BB rates did not jive well with the ERA. To his credit Mazzaro did post better rates in the minor leagues, and at least one of them is going to have to improve for him to be a serviceable guy in the middle of the rotation. If I had to hedge bets I would say his walk rate would improve closer to where it was in the upper minor leagues, right around the 2.5 BB/9 range. Mazzaro is not quite as important to the future as Hochevar in my opinion, but developing into that #3/#4 type starter in short order would help the team in many ways. First and foremost he helps the team win more games. Second, a serviceable starter allows the organization to keep the young studs in the minors a little bit longer, and helps resist the urge to bring them up too early. This is similar to what the Rays did with Jeremy Hellickson in 2010. Hellickson has more upside than serviceable starters like Jeff Niemann and James Shields, but their presence at the ML level allowed the Rays to put finishing touches on the development of Hellickson at the Triple-A level. Lastly, a serviceable Mazzaro gives him trade value once those young studs are ready for the big time. Young and relatively cheap starters are always in high demand, and could bring the Royals more high upside youngsters in return. Despite the great pitchers in the minor leagues, it is unrealistic to expect the system to churn out five or six stud ML starters with the high rate of attrition, so getting some development from these two is very important to the future of the Royals rotation.

Now I want to talk about a bullpen piece, but let’s be honest, the meat of the future bullpen likely is still in the minors. Whether it is current starters like Chris Dwyer and Everett Teaford, or strikeout machines like Tim Collins and Patrick Keating, these are likely the future in the 7^th and 8^th innings. But there is one piece that played a substantial role in 2010 that could be a pivotal piece in the future, and that is Blake Wood. As we probably remember, Wood came up to the Royals in the middle of last season and on the surface did really well for a few weeks. Eventually, the weak strikeout and walk rates caught up to him and his ERA went down the drain pretty darn fast. Though the ERA never significantly recovered from that brutal July, Wood did see his strikeout rate rise significantly at the end of the season, when he struck out 18 batters in as many innings. Sure, small sample size, but I saw an improved slider that turned into a legitimate weapon especially against right-handed hitters. We will have to see if Wood can keep up the strikeout rate, but should he do so he could be an important part of the bullpen for the next few seasons.

Next time I will go over the position players on the ML roster. As you may guess, there are quite a few of them that fit the bill of this subject.