Thursday, March 3, 2011

Running wild

Through their first five spring training games the Royals have stole 11 bases, while statistics this time of year mean precious little I'm hoping this aggressiveness will carry over into the regular season. Anybody old enough to remember the teams from the 70's and early 80's should recall the havoc they created on the basepaths. In franchise history when they've stolen 3+ bases in a game they are 343-154, that's a .690 winning percentage. Of course there are other factors at play in those games, pitching for one, so the steals most likely played a minor part in some wins but a major part in others.

Going back to 1995, when the era of mediocrity began, they are 97-55 in such games. This I think is more telling since they've trotted out some truly awful teams the last decade and a half. In the same time frame they are 243-175 when stealing 2+ bases, good for a .581 winning percentage. Over a full season that's a 94-68 record.

Last year they were 42-35 when they had at least one stolen base, 25-60 when they didn't. Again other factors are at play here but you got to admit that's an interesting difference in records. For comparisons sake they were 44-43 when they had at least one home run in game.

So I think there's something to this, I mean sure it may be simplistic thinking on my part and I know that correlation does not imply causation and all but still.....

KC has some speed to play with this year, if consistently given the green light Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar could rack up 40+ steals each.

And that my friends would be fun to watch.

3 comments:

Mel said...

What was there record when they had no steals but were caught at least once? With the good comes the bad.

Jeff Parker said...

8-21, fair enough. They will definitely have to choose their spots and send the right people.

Michael said...

You have to GET ON BASE FIRST in order to steal one. Let's see the team's OBP get higher before worrying about how many bases they can steal.