Sunday, April 17, 2011

10-4 starts since 2005

By now you know the Royals are off to their third best 14 game start in team history. Only the 1978 and 2003 clubs, who both started 11-3, were better. The 1978 team would win their division and lose to the Yankees in the ALCS while in 2003 they tailed off late but still finished above .500 with an 83-79 record. (Because of this too many people would eventually believe that this prevented them from shedding Mike Sweeney's contract after the 2004 season. They couldn't have, the opt out was on his part and trust me, he wouldn't have opted out.)

While we don't know yet what their start means for the rest of the season we can look at recent history and see how other teams finished after beginning the season 10-4. It has happened 13 times since 2005, and whether you believe this start is legitimate or is just a grand detour on the way to a historically bad season the results may interest you.

Only five of the 13 made the playoffs (38%) but all but one finished above .500 (92%).

Year Team Finished Postseason
2005 White Sox 99-63 World Series Champ
2006 Astros 82-80
2006 Mets 97-65 Division Champ
2006 Red Sox 86-76
2007 Mets 88-74
2007 Braves 84-78
2007 Dodgers 82-80
2008 Diamondbacks 82-80
2008 Cardinals 86-76
2009 Blue Jays 75-87
2009 Dodgers 95-67 Division Champ
2010 Rays 96-66 Division Champ
2010 Twins 94-68 Division Champ

For those desperately trying to explain away this start as just a random 14 games in a long season and those already booking hotel rooms in October let me offer some advice - live in the present and enjoy what's happening right now.

Because it really is a lot fun.

4 comments:

1982 Topps blog - My 1st Cards said...

I actually wondered a similar thing yesterday and found the Royals have had stretches similar to 10-4 in every one of the past few seasons. So I don't think this start really means anything.


................................... 2010 record: 67-95
10-5 from 5/13 to 5/28
10-3 from 6/23 to 7/07

................................... 2009 record: 65-97
12-3 from 9/07 to 9/22

................................... 2008 record: 75-87
13-4 from 6/12 to 6/30
14-3 from 9/11 to 9/27

................................... 2007 record: 69-93
10-5 from 6/24 to 7/14

................................... 2006 record: 62-100
15-7 from 6/14 to 7/07
10-5 from 8/29 to 9/14

................................... 2005 record: 56-106
11-4 from 5/31 to 6/16

1982 Topps blog - My 1st Cards said...

PS. I can't enjoy it. 2003's summer collapse still stings, so I won't let you enjoy it yet either LOL :-P

Jeff Parker said...

I think a good start matters. I had them at 72-90 before the year which is a .444 W%, if they win at that clip the remainder of the year they will finish 76-86, which isn't great but is just a few breaks away from .500.

Totally get your point though.

Anonymous said...

By June or whatever a team has already formed its identity and you pretty much know who they are. The reason why a stretch to start the season is different, you don't know who they are. This is not the same team from 2003 and what makes this year exciting is they won't need to trade for anybody because their help is in Omaha. Hos, Moose, Monty