A Butler comp from the glory years

If there's a 30+ home run monster lurking inside Billy Butler's body it has yet to manifest itself. I'm not going to try and convince you its there either, I mean, it might be, he is only 25 years old after all. I look at Butler and I see a pretty dang fine hitter and if this is it, if his upside has been reached, I'm ok with that. Here's why, his numbers are awful similar to that of Harold Abraham McRae. Now this isn't an age based comp, as McRae didn't become a full time player until his age 28 season, this is strictly numbers.

Here's their 162 game average comparison (I'm using only McRae's Royals numbers, the Reds years are unimportant to the conversation.).

Player	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Butler	668	73	179	43	1	16	83	60	88	.299	.363	.454	.817	119
McRae	648	77	170	40	6	15	90	55	62	.293	.356	.458	.814	124

That's basically the same player, no? Back then I recall McRae being appreciated for what he was, not what he wasn't. The Butler frustration so illogically prominent among some Royals fans today is due to the fact that people believe him to be something he's not. He is not a power hitter, at least not yet.

I suspect Butler's home run totals will vary from year to year. If he has reached his upside, and again I'm not saying he has, then he'll likely have a few random 20+ HR seasons scattered among a lot in the 12-19 range.

McRae, as you can tell from this chart, was also prone to wild fluctuations.

Also of interest is how Butler's power numbers the last two years mirrored McRae's 77 and 78 seasons:

McRae 1977 - 54 doubles, 21 home runs, 92 RBIs
Butler 2009 - 51 doubles, 21 home runs, 93 RBIs

McRae 1978 - 39 doubles, 16 home runs, 72 RBIs
Butler  2010 - 45 doubles, 15 home runs, 78 RBIs

Now McRae had a 153 OPS+ in 1976 so 1977 wasn't his breakout year like 2009 was Butler's, but it was the first time he posted a slugging percentage over .500. He wouldn't post similar power numbers again until 1982 when he had 46 doubles, 27 home runs, and 133 RBIs.

Eric Hosmer appears legit, we hope Mike Moustakas will be as well. If those two become modern day Bash Brothers then Butler's offense will complement theirs nicely, and just maybe, end all this talk of him being a disappointment.