Sunday, October 2, 2011

200

I missed most of the controversy that surrounded Melky Cabrera's pursuit of a 200 hit season, which is for the best I suppose, because it seems a weird thing to be upset about. I get that the difference between 197 and 200 hits in terms of value and production is nonexistent but this was about history, because in Kansas City 200 hit seasons are rare, even rarer than a 30 home run season as a matter of fact. At most it probably should have been a non-issue, I mean would a few extra plate appearances for Lorenzo Cain tell us anything we don't already know? Probably not. So no, I didn't see any reason why Cabrera shouldn't have been given the opportunity to add his name to the 200 hit club.

Cabrera became the just the sixth Royal to achieve the feat and the first since 2000. Here are the too few members of the Royals 200 hit club.

Player Year H Age
George Brett 1976 215 23
George Brett 1979 212 26
Willie Wilson 1980 230 24
Kevin Seitzer 1987 207 25
Johnny Damon 2000 214 26
Mike Sweeney 2000 206 26
Melky Cabrera 2011 201 26
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

As you can see four of the seasons were accomplished by players in their age 26 season, which I find somewhat interesting.

Given the heightened offensive environments that existed in 1987 and 2000 an argument can be made that Cabrera's 200 hits may be more impressive than Seitzer, Damon and Sweeney's. On the flip side though there were five such seasons across baseball in '87, and six in '00 and five this season. So even when offense is up it seems only a handful players reach 200.

Acknowledging that, I thought it'd be interesting to see how the above players fared as compared to rest of baseball in their respective years. So here is their numbers as well as the MLB numbers and how many total players had 200 hits.

Player Year H BA OBP SLGmlbBA mlbOBP mlbSLG OPS+ 200 hit club

George Brett 1976 215 .333 .377 .462 .255 .320 .361 144 5

George Brett 1979 212 .329 .376 .563 .265 .330 .397 148 7

Willie Wilson 1980 230 .326 .357 .421 .265 .326 .388 113 6

Kevin Seitzer 1987 207 .323 .399 .470 .263 .331 .415 128 5

Johnny Damon 2000 214 .327 .382 .495 .270 .345 .437 118 6

Mike Sweeney 2000 206 .333 .407 .523 .270 .345 .437 131 6

Melky Cabrera 2011 201 .305 .339 .470 .255 .321 .399 121 5

I think it's a safe that bet that Cabrera regresses next seasons. As I've wrote before it's rare for a player as bad as Cabrera was before this season to suddenly find it. Of course where this regression occurs is still to be determined. I was of a mind that Cabrera would be back for 2012 with Cain as the fourth outfielder ready to step in should injury hit, but now, I think there's a strong chance he gets dealt.

And then per Bob Dutton, there's this:
A multi-year deal for center fielder Melky Cabrera, who is also eligible for arbitration, seems far less likely. Cabrera is believed to be seeking four or five years, while the Royals remain wary of spiking the incentive that comes with a one-year deal. Cabrera is the most-likely regular to be dealt because the Royals believe they have a replacement in Lorenzo Cain
I really don't know how much trade value Cabrera has. Given his less than stellar pre-2011 career I doubt any GM's have fully bought into his renaissance. I certainly haven't, and if I haven't, I can pretty much guarantee you that Andrew Friedman and Billy Beane haven't either. He'll definitely have to be part of a package that includes one of the Royals top prospects, be it Wil Myers or Mike Montogmery. And if Moore deals either of those two players, or Jake Odorizzi for that matter, he better nail the return.

5 comments:

Antonio. said...

Someone on RB has been voicing Myers-Mike Minor, which would be interesting. As far as Friedman goes, I wonder what it would take to get him to make Moore available. Moore is a pitcher I was interested in before he made Texas look bad on Friday. A 2007 8th rounder...if only. If only.

To improve their offense, TB might be able to let Upton go and then trade for Melky and do something with the savings. Melky-for-Moore is unlikely, but it could be a nice place to start. Since our offense is so much stronger than our pitching/defense, I'd be okay with hurting our offense (ever so slightly) to greatly upgrade our pitching via Cain's better-than-Melky's defense.

Kyle said...

Moore for Cabrera is not even close. Cabrera is a one year rental player that has had one good season. He was a great sign by Moore this offseason in hindsight, but he will not bring much in return. It would take Monty and Myers to get Moore, most likely, and even then its not going to happen

Antonio. said...

Well, I did say it's a great place to start...start with Melky and build from there. I didn't say it right. Melky-for-Moore is unlikely...meaning straight up, but it could be the start of something. Of course, prospects-for-prospects deals are very rare and Melky certainly wouldn't/couldn't be the centerpiece of a deal for Moore...

Kyle said...

Rays aren't typically the type of team that want a one year rental player. Especially a rental player worse (and probably more expensive) than their current players. They want team control, and low payrolls. The Rays just don't fit the profile to trade away prospects. They "might" trade away players that are getting close to be expensive (Shields, Niemann, Zobrist, Upton), but not prospects.

Antonio. said...

For a guy that put up Cy Young numbers, Shields is only making 7 million next year. I know it's the Rays, but I think they can handle that. Upton made 4.825 last year...he really shouldn't make more considering his lack of progress, but he will...and I can see them shipping him out. Niemann barely has over two years in...so unless he qualifies as Super Two, he doesn't even qualify for arbitration. Zobrist is making 4.5 next year. Joyce is the only full-time outfielder that outhit Melky. We agree Upton is on his way out. I'd love the opportunity to line up Melky/Jennings/Joyce. They do need to improve their offense. They only had two guys in their pen with ERA+ over 100 and they're both 35 (former Royals Farnsworth and Peralta). Melky/Holland/Ventura isn't even a conversation? And Melky probably isn't going to get that much. Maybe 4, 4.5 M..? Maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less..?