Saturday, October 1, 2011

Final AL Central Pythagorean Standings

Team W L RS RA
Detroit 89 73 787 711
Kansas City 78 84 730 762
Cleveland 75 87 704 760
Chicago 75 87 654 706
Minnesota 62 100 619 804

That's a fair bit different from reality, eh? Only the San Diego Padres had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean records than the Royals. Playing .500 or better next season seems more realistic if you consider the 2011 club a 78 win team. They went 10-21 when Jeff Francis started so could possible contention really be as simple as replacing him in the rotation with Chad Billingsley or James Shields? I'm not answering either way, just legitimately wondering.

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Linkage

Aaron Stilley looks at the 2011 Royals By The Numbers. Lot of good stuff here as Aaron tells where the outfield and rotation ranked in team history and why Jeff Francoeur's 20/20 season is less impressive than it appears.

The Power Of One Pitcher at KC Longball takes a look at what a James Shields addition could do for the 2012 record.

Michael Engel has a few thoughts on next season's rotation as well in Exit Stage Left.

Craig Brown in his post on the coaching changes brought to light one of the most pathetic stats of the year - the Royals threw the most pitches in baseball and had the lowest strike percentage. That's an unhealthy combination that will lead to things like a 92 ERA+.

Will McDonald wonders if the coaching staff changes are a sign that Ned Yost is here to stay.

Clint Scoles does that minor league profile thing he does so well, this time on Ethan Hollingsworth. Hollingsworth, as you may recall, was the pitcher Kansas City received from Oakland for Kila Ka'aihue. You know if Brad Pitt would've drafted Kila back in 2002 the A's wouldn't have had to part with a player with a John Hughes-approved name.

6 comments:

  1. If Coleman, Holland, Soria, and Crow had only 7 blown saves instead of 17, then you'd be at .500 this year. That doesn't even include the number of times that we couldn't score late in games.

    Detroit had 62 opportunities with only 10 blown. Royals had 59 with 22 blown.

    Not to say that the Royals bullpen was bad this year, but hopefully with a year of experience, they tighten up the ability to hold leads. Tack on better hitting from Moustakas and Giovotella over Getz, and this is easily a .500 team next year.

    Hochevar was better in the second half. Paulino is better than Davies although when he gets hit, it's usually pretty hard. Duffy should be better next year. Hopefully Mendoza is for real. If they go with those four guys, and you're planning on acquiring another starter through free agency or trade, you probably aren't giving Teaford or Crow a shot.

    Also, Francis and Davies probably won't be back, but they did have very low run support at below 4 runs a start, where Chen, Duffy, Hochevar and Paulino were well above 4. Somebody is going to inherit the low run support starts, causing somebody we expect to succeed to come up short of what we hope.

    All told, this team should easily improve to 80+ wins this next year with a shot for 88+ depending on how the new pitching coach and pitchers improve things next year.

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  2. I can't disagree with any of that. Well done.

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  3. Mendoza, though, I don't think will in the rotation and if he is, then probably not for very long. I expect Crow/Teaford to keep that spot in the rotation warm until Mike Montgomery is called up to claim it.

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  4. I can't get my mind around poor run support. It just seems like common sense that it would fluctuate to the point where it was overall even. I could understand it if teams always matched up to the point that it was almost always #1 (starter) v #1, #2 v #2, etc, but it doesn't happen that way. I think run support is why I never got too upset about the Zack ordeal last year...I felt like I couldn't blame him.

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  5. If Mendoza is really part of the "first five" there is a big problem. I don't see any problem with giving him a chance, he deserves it, but come on. He doesn't strike anyone out, he walks too many, and he isn't exactly a groundball pitcher. As of right now they have Hoch, Duffy, Paulino, Chen (maybe), Monty, Teaford, Mendoza, SOS, Mazzaro, Dwyer, Smith in pretty much that order. They need to add someone in front of Hoch, or two guys between Paulino and Chen.

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