Friday, October 28, 2011

Gio

Johnny Giavotella's late season look was underwhelming to be sure but playing with a torn labrum may partially explain his troubles. I've seen mentioned on forums and twitter that Gio isn't the answer at second base, which frankly surprises me given his minor league resume. He's not the first player to mash AAA pitching and then struggle in his first crack at the majors, it happens all the time. The fact is, hurt or healthy, 187 plate appearances is not enough of a sample size to tell us anything.

To prove my point here are how a couple of other 23 year olds performed their rookie season, and how they performed the year after.

Peter Bourjos
Year Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
2010 23 193 .204 .237 .381 69
2011 24 552 .271 .327 .438 115
Year Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
1991 23 162 .353 .435 .515 168
1992 24 343 .232 .354 .281 83
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

We know nothing. 

7 comments:

  1. Completely agree with you on Gio. The amateur "experts" need to give the guy a break. Take a peek a Pedroia's first 140 or so at bats. He was at something like .184. At a glance it looks like Gio had better minor league numbers as well.

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  2. Someone within the organization was saying Gio won't last through '12 as the Royals starter at the keystone. Pedroia was better than .184 but by pins and needles.

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  3. I think they have to give him 500+ PA's next year based on his minor league numbers (.305/.375/.437) and his draft status (2nd rd).

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  4. We know nothing? If tools are relevant to whether a prospect will succeed in the majors (and they are), we have to take into account that prospect evaluators never particularly liked Giavotella. And, quite frankly, his defense stinks. He's going to have to hit quite well to make up for that defense and be an average MLB player. It could happen. I don't think it's likely.

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  5. That's not true regarding Gio's tools, Anonymous (9:15 AM). Scouts have always said that Gio has good contact skills, good strike-zone judgment and good bat speed. Those are tools. In fact, those are the basic tools of a pretty good hitter. As a result, throughout his minor league career, he has both hit and hit for power.

    The question to answer (and this is what you really can't say on the basis of 187 PA's) is whether he can translate those tools into MLB success in 2012. The fact that his glove ain't gonna carry him if he doesn't just makes the answer to that question more important.

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  6. Most of the you are right. Giavotella does have tools, especially hitting tools. The main issue with him has been his size. He was underrated from the get-go because of that. When we took him in the 2nd round, I remember hearing about how it was a stretch, but he had physical ability of Pedroia. I think his hitting will be fine. The question is whether his hitting will make up for his defense or his defense will improve enough to not necessitate that. As a side note, I would say that his range seems to be more than adequate--so it's up to him to be consistent.

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  7. You are right. I totally agree with you on Gio.

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