Gio

Johnny Giavotella's late season look was underwhelming to be sure but playing with a torn labrum may partially explain his troubles. I've seen mentioned on forums and twitter that Gio isn't the answer at second base, which frankly surprises me given his minor league resume. He's not the first player to mash AAA pitching and then struggle in his first crack at the majors, it happens all the time. The fact is, hurt or healthy, 187 plate appearances is not enough of a sample size to tell us anything.

To prove my point here are how a couple of other 23 year olds performed their rookie season, and how they performed the year after.

Peter Bourjos

Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2010	23	193	.204	.237	.381	69
2011	24	552	.271	.327	.438	115

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Bret Barberie

Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1991	23	162	.353	.435	.515	168
1992	24	343	.232	.354	.281	83

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

We know nothing. 

Rotation Thoughts

It's possible that the Royals 2012 contention hopes rest on one tiny word, if. As in they'll contend if Dayton Moore can find a quality SP this winter, if Luke Hochevar's second half really was a taste of things to come, if Felipe Paulino can avoid regressing to his pre-Royals numbers, and finally, if Danny Duffy can take a John Danks-like step his sophomore year.

Of course not all of the above mentioned ifs need to occur for the Royals to play meaningful baseball in September but I would argue that probably three of them do. I'll tackle them one at a time.

The offseason acquistion

Many rumors and suggestions have floated around about who Moore should target to front the 2012 rotation. There are only a handful pitchers in baseball who can be considered true aces and Moore is not going to get one. But there are many above average guys who would slot nicely into the #1 spot in Kansas City, the three I like most are James Shields, Chad Billingsley and Edwin Jackson.

• Shields - After a 225 strikeout season he probably would cost the most prospect-wise. Those who fret over his .260 BAbip are right to worry as that's a career low. Last season a .344 mark produced a 75 ERA+ but from 2007-2009 his BAbips were all in the .284-.311 range and he put up ERA+'s of 117, 124 and 105. He seems an unlikely bet to match his 2011 numbers but he'll still strike out a lot of hitters while walking very few.
• Billingsley - He is owed 32 million over the next three seasons (actually 35M counting the buyout for the 4th year team option, which they'd almost assuredly decline), and given the Dodgers internal mess, I'd wager that's a contract they'd like to part with. At 27 he is still fairly young but he has put up an ERA+ south of 100 two of the last three seasons, so there's that. Also his 7.3 SO/9 was the lowest he'd ever put up in a full season so you have to wonder what's going on there.  
• Jackson - Unlike the previous two Jackson is a free agent so he won't cost prospects, only money, and in a weak class he is probably going to be overpaid. At 28 he is coming off four consecutive seasons of 180+ innings pitched and has had an ERA+ above 100 in three of them. If you'd rather see Moore give Jackson 3/39 than pay Shields or Billingsley less but have to part with Wil Myers or Mike Montgomery, then you're probably not alone.

All three of these guys would be significant upgrades over Jeff Francis.

The pitcher of our discontent

	Split	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	BB	SO	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
	1st Half	5	8	5.46	19	19	118.2	38	60	1.382	4.6	1.58
	2nd Half	6	3	3.52	12	12	79.1	24	68	1.134	7.7	2.83

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

This was the first season I exited the Hochevar bandwagon and I'm pretty certain I was one of the last few off. But that was before the All Star break, and well, look at what he did afterwards. If increased use of his slider really was what turned around his season (and possibly career) around then he may be in line for a big 2012. I'm not ready to make that prediction though.

One of the running jokes in the Royals blogosphere is that Hochevar is only consistent in his inconsistency, you see it's funny because it's true. Because of that it would surprise no one to see him totally bomb next season, even after his fantastic second half. Now I suppose it's likely that Moore rolls the dice and buys in to Hochevar's second half, that could mean an SP won't be a high priority as he'll feel comfortable with Hochevar at #1 again. That's just speculation on my part though but given how Moore tends to ignore track records I see it as a real possibility. It'd be a tremendous gamble though and I imagine a currently excited fan base would not react well to such a decision.

The strikeout artist

Rk	Player	Date	IP	SO
1	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-10	7.0	11
2	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-26	6.0	9
3	Luke Hochevar	2011-09-08	6.2	9
4	Bruce Chen	2011-08-23	7.2	9
5	Kyle Davies	2011-07-18	5.1	9
6	Felipe Paulino	2011-07-05	6.0	9
7	Danny Duffy	2011-06-19	3.2	9
8	Felipe Paulino	2011-09-21	5.0	8
9	Bruce Chen	2011-09-13	8.0	8
10	Luke Hochevar	2011-09-03	8.0	8
11	Felipe Paulino	2011-07-17	7.0	8
12	Felipe Paulino	2011-06-23	8.0	8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Of the twelve games all year in which a Royals starter recorded 8 or more strikeouts Paulino started exactly half. His 8.59 SO/9 was the fourth best in franchise history among pitchers who started 20+ games. If Moore does indeed acquire a back of the rotation SP then I think I'd rather see Paulino at #1 instead of Hochevar.

Regression is of course the worry here but I'm not overly concerned with it. True he was abysmal with Houston and Colorado but considering that he only pitched 151.1 innings at AA and AAA combined I think he's a case of a guy who's finally figured things out. Of the four ifs, his is the one I'm most confident about coming true.

The young southpaw

I mentioned Danks as comp to Duffy earlier, which may be wishful thinking on my part, but take a look at the two left-handers rookie seasons and you'll see why I came to that conclusion.

	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Danks	22	6	13	5.50	26	26	139.0	54	109	86	1.540	10.4	1.8	3.5	7.1	2.02
Duffy	22	4	8	5.64	20	20	105.1	51	87	73	1.614	10.2	1.3	4.4	7.4	1.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

In 2008 Danks produced a 138 ERA+, 6.4 bWAR sophomore season helping the White Sox take the Central one year after they finished 72-90. Granted that type of season seems unlikely for Duffy but there's no doubt that he has the talent and stuff to be well above average. I expect that the lack of high minor league seasoning (81.1 combined AA/AAA innings) will result in next season being another learning experience. In fact, I don't believe it's a given that Duffy even breaks camp with the club, and really, additional AAA innings are certainly not going to harm his development. In a rotation full of wild cards he may be the wildest card of them all.

Now you may have noticed the absence of Bruce Chen in this post, that's because I don't think he'll be back. If he does though, I expect we'll see more of the same, and that'll fit in nicely at #5.

So here's what we're potentially looking at next season:
1. Shields/Billingsley/Jackson
2. Hochevar
3. Paulino
4. Duffy
5. Crow/Teaford/Montgomery/Chen

I tend to get incredibly optimistic in the offseason but I think any of the 1 and 5 combinations along with the three holdovers would work, if things play out like we hope.

200

I missed most of the controversy that surrounded Melky Cabrera's pursuit of a 200 hit season, which is for the best I suppose, because it seems a weird thing to be upset about. I get that the difference between 197 and 200 hits in terms of value and production is nonexistent but this was about history, because in Kansas City 200 hit seasons are rare, even rarer than a 30 home run season as a matter of fact. At most it probably should have been a non-issue, I mean would a few extra plate appearances for Lorenzo Cain tell us anything we don't already know? Probably not. So no, I didn't see any reason why Cabrera shouldn't have been given the opportunity to add his name to the 200 hit club.

Cabrera became the just the sixth Royal to achieve the feat and the first since 2000. Here are the too few members of the Royals 200 hit club.

Player	Year	H	Age
George Brett	1976	215	23
George Brett	1979	212	26
Willie Wilson	1980	230	24
Kevin Seitzer	1987	207	25
Johnny Damon	2000	214	26
Mike Sweeney	2000	206	26
Melky Cabrera	2011	201	26

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

As you can see four of the seasons were accomplished by players in their age 26 season, which I find somewhat interesting.

Given the heightened offensive environments that existed in 1987 and 2000 an argument can be made that Cabrera's 200 hits may be more impressive than Seitzer, Damon and Sweeney's. On the flip side though there were five such seasons across baseball in '87, and six in '00 and five this season. So even when offense is up it seems only a handful players reach 200.

Acknowledging that, I thought it'd be interesting to see how the above players fared as compared to rest of baseball in their respective years. So here is their numbers as well as the MLB numbers and how many total players had 200 hits.

	Player	Year	H	BA	OBP	SLG	mlbBA	mlbOBP	mlbSLG	OPS+	200 hit club
	George Brett	1976	215	.333	.377	.462	.255	.320	.361	144	5
	George Brett	1979	212	.329	.376	.563	.265	.330	.397	148	7
	Willie Wilson	1980	230	.326	.357	.421	.265	.326	.388	113	6
	Kevin Seitzer	1987	207	.323	.399	.470	.263	.331	.415	128	5
	Johnny Damon	2000	214	.327	.382	.495	.270	.345	.437	118	6
	Mike Sweeney	2000	206	.333	.407	.523	.270	.345	.437	131	6
	Melky Cabrera	2011	201	.305	.339	.470	.255	.321	.399	121	5

I think it's a safe that bet that Cabrera regresses next seasons. As I've wrote before it's rare for a player as bad as Cabrera was before this season to suddenly find it. Of course where this regression occurs is still to be determined. I was of a mind that Cabrera would be back for 2012 with Cain as the fourth outfielder ready to step in should injury hit, but now, I think there's a strong chance he gets dealt.

And then per Bob Dutton, there's this:

A multi-year deal for center fielder Melky Cabrera, who is also eligible for arbitration, seems far less likely. Cabrera is believed to be seeking four or five years, while the Royals remain wary of spiking the incentive that comes with a one-year deal. Cabrera is the most-likely regular to be dealt because the Royals believe they have a replacement in Lorenzo Cain

I really don't know how much trade value Cabrera has. Given his less than stellar pre-2011 career I doubt any GM's have fully bought into his renaissance. I certainly haven't, and if I haven't, I can pretty much guarantee you that Andrew Friedman and Billy Beane haven't either. He'll definitely have to be part of a package that includes one of the Royals top prospects, be it Wil Myers or Mike Montogmery. And if Moore deals either of those two players, or Jake Odorizzi for that matter, he better nail the return.

Final AL Central Pythagorean Standings

Team	W	L	RS	RA
Detroit	89	73	787	711
Kansas City	78	84	730	762
Cleveland	75	87	704	760
Chicago	75	87	654	706
Minnesota	62	100	619	804

That's a fair bit different from reality, eh? Only the San Diego Padres had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean records than the Royals. Playing .500 or better next season seems more realistic if you consider the 2011 club a 78 win team. They went 10-21 when Jeff Francis started so could possible contention really be as simple as replacing him in the rotation with Chad Billingsley or James Shields? I'm not answering either way, just legitimately wondering.

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Linkage

Aaron Stilley looks at the 2011 Royals By The Numbers. Lot of good stuff here as Aaron tells where the outfield and rotation ranked in team history and why Jeff Francoeur's 20/20 season is less impressive than it appears.

The Power Of One Pitcher at KC Longball takes a look at what a James Shields addition could do for the 2012 record.

Michael Engel has a few thoughts on next season's rotation as well in Exit Stage Left.

Craig Brown in his post on the coaching changes brought to light one of the most pathetic stats of the year - the Royals threw the most pitches in baseball and had the lowest strike percentage. That's an unhealthy combination that will lead to things like a 92 ERA+.

Will McDonald wonders if the coaching staff changes are a sign that Ned Yost is here to stay.

Clint Scoles does that minor league profile thing he does so well, this time on Ethan Hollingsworth. Hollingsworth, as you may recall, was the pitcher Kansas City received from Oakland for Kila Ka'aihue. You know if Brad Pitt would've drafted Kila back in 2002 the A's wouldn't have had to part with a player with a John Hughes-approved name.